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Related papers: Detecting relevant changes in time series models

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We investigate the significance of change-points within fully nonparametric regression contexts, with a particular focus on panel data where data generation processes vary across units, and error terms may display complex dependency…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-07 Likai Chen , Georg Keilbar , Liangjun Su , Weining Wang

We present a new CUSUM procedure for sequentially detecting change-point in the self and mutual exciting processes, a.k.a. Hawkes networks using discrete events data. Hawkes networks have become a popular model for statistics and machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak

The research described herewith investigates detecting change points of means and of variances in a sequence of observations. The number of change points can be divergent at certain rate as the sample size goes to infinity. We define a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-04 Wenbiao Zhao , Xuehu Zhu , Lixing Zhu

The problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) in an online fashion is of interest, due to new applications in biology, economics and social sciences. The offline version of the problem, where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Hossein Keshavarz , George Michailidis

We study a CUSUM (cumulative sums) procedure for the detection of changes in the means of weakly dependent time series within an abstract Hilbert space framework. We use an empirical projection approach via a principal component…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-08 Leonid Torgovitski

In many change point problems it is reasonable to assume that compared to a benchmark at a given time point $t_0$ the properties of the observed stochastic process change gradually over time for $t >t_0$. Often, these gradual changes are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Patrick Bastian , Holger Dette

We present a distribution-free CUSUM procedure designed for online change detection in a time series of low-rank images, particularly when the change causes a mean shift. We represent images as matrix data and allow for temporal dependence,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-28 Tingnan Gong , Seong-Hee Kim , Yao Xie

In this paper, in order to test whether changes have occurred in a nonlinear parametric regression, we propose a nonparametric method based on the empirical likelihood. Firstly, we test the null hypothesis of no-change against the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-22 Gabriela Ciuperca , Zahraa Salloum

Sequential change-point detection plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, where timely identification of distributional shifts can greatly mitigate adverse outcomes. Classical methods commonly rely on parametric density…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-23 Wenbin Zhou , Liyan Xie , Zhigang Peng , Shixiang Zhu

Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-22 Paul A. Wiggins , Colin H. LaMont

In this paper we consider change-points in multiple sequences with the objective of minimizing the estimation error of a sequence by making use of information from other sequences. This is in contrast to recent interest on change-points in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-02 Hock Peng Chan

Change-point detection, detecting an abrupt change in the data distribution from sequential data, is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. CUSUM is a popular statistical method for online change-point detection due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Tingnan Gong , Junghwan Lee , Xiuyuan Cheng , Yao Xie

The goal of the paper is to develop a specific application of the convex optimization based hypothesis testing techniques developed in A. Juditsky, A. Nemirovski, "Hypothesis testing via affine detectors," Electronic Journal of Statistics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-09 Yang Cao , Vincent Guigues , Anatoli Juditsky , Arkadi Nemirovski , Yao Xie

In this paper, we consider a change-point problem for a centered, stationary and $m$-dependent multivariate random field. Under the distribution free assumption, a change-point test using CUSUM statistic is proposed to detect anomalies…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-28 Vitalii Makogin , Duc Nguyen

The use of U-statistics in the change-point context has received considerable attention in the literature. We compare two approaches of constructing CUSUM-type change-point tests, which we call the first-vs-full and first-vs-last approach.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Herold Dehling , Daniel Vogel , Martin Wendler

We propose novel methods for change-point testing for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. We can detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of marginal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-07 Lin Fan , Junting Duan , Peter W. Glynn , Markus Pelger

Inference and prediction under the sparsity assumption have been a hot research topic in recent years. However, in practice, the sparsity assumption is difficult to test, and more importantly can usually be violated. In this paper, to study…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Yanmei Shi , Zhiruo Li , Qi Zhang

We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Wenbin Zhou , Liyan Xie , Shixiang Zhu

Change point detection in high dimensional data has found considerable interest in recent years. Most of the literature either designs methodology for a retrospective analysis, where the whole sample is already available when the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Josua Gösmann , Christina Stoehr , Johannes Heiny , Holger Dette

In this paper, we consider detecting and estimating breaks in heterogeneous mean functions of high-dimensional functional time series which are allowed to be cross-sectionally correlated and temporally dependent. A new test statistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-17 Degui Li , Runze Li , Han Lin Shang