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Stochastic differential equations such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have long been used to model realworld probablistic events such as stock prices and temperature fluctuations. While statistical methods such as Maximum Likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Aroon Sankoh , Victor Wickerhauser

The paper deals with the regression model $X_t = \theta t + B_t$, $t\in[0, T ]$, where $B=\{B_t, t\geq 0\}$ is a centered Gaussian process with stationary increments. We study the estimation of the unknown parameter $\theta$ and establish…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-18 Yuliya Mishura , Kostiantyn Ralchenko , Sergiy Shklyar

Using the path integral representation of the non-equilibrium dynamics, we compute the most probable path between arbitrary starting and final points, followed by an active particle driven by persistent noise. We focus our attention on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-15 Andrea Crisanti , Matteo Paoluzzi

A general theory of efficient estimation for ergodic diffusion processes sampled at high frequency with an infinite time horizon is presented. High frequency sampling is common in many applications, with finance as a prominent example. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-10 Michael Sørensen

We derive consistency and asymptotic normality results for quasi-maximum likelihood methods for drift parameters of ergodic stochastic processes observed in discrete time in an underlying continuous-time setting. The special feature of our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-20 Teppei Ogihara , Mitja Stadje

This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-04 El Omari Mohamed , Hamid El Maroufy , Christiane Fuchs

Parameter estimation in diffusion processes from discrete observations up to a first-hitting time is clearly of practical relevance, but does not seem to have been studied so far. In neuroscience, many models for the membrane potential…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-06 Enrico Bibbona , Susanne Ditlevsen

In this paper we present new theoretical results for the Dantzig and Lasso estimators of the drift in a high dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model under sparsity constraints. Our focus is on oracle inequalities for both estimators and error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-04 Gabriela Ciolek , Dmytro Marushkevych , Mark Podolskij

We construct an estimator of the unknown drift parameter $\theta\in {\mathbb{R}}$ in the linear model \[X_t=\theta t+\sigma_1B^{H_1}(t)+\sigma_2B^{H_2}(t),\;t\in[0,T],\] where $B^{H_1}$ and $B^{H_2}$ are two independent fractional Brownian…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-13 Yuliya Mishura , Ivan Voronov

In this paper we investigate the problem of detecting a change in the drift parameters of a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process which is defined as the solution of $dX_t=(L(t)-\alpha X_t) dt + \sigma dB_t$, and which is observed in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-13 Herold Dehling , Brice Franke , Thomas Kott , Reg Kulperger

In this paper we give solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a L\'evy process consisting of both a continuous Gaussian part and a jump component. We consider here Bayesian framework with an exponential a priori…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-01-03 Michał Krawiec , Zbigniew Palmowski , Łukasz Płociniczak

We consider high frequency samples from ergodic L\'evy driven stochastic differential equation (SDE) with drift coefficient $a(x,\alpha)$ and scale coefficient $c(x,\gamma)$ involving unknown parameters $\alpha$ and $\gamma$. We suppose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-12 Hiroki Masuda , Yuma Uehara

Conditions are given, sufficient for the distribution of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with L\'evy noise to be absolutely continuous or to possess a smooth density. For the processes with non-degenerate drift coefficient, these conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-06-04 Semen V. Bodnarchuk , Alexey M. Kulik

This paper builds a multivariate L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for the management of non-maturing deposits, that are a major source of funding for banks. The contribution of the paper is both theoretical and operational. On the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-28 Marina Marena , Andrea Romeo , Patrizia Semeraro

This paper aims at semi-parametrically estimating the input process to a L\'evy-driven queue by sampling the workload process at Poisson times. We construct a method-of-moments based estimator for the L\'evy process' characteristic…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-31 Liron Ravner , Onno Boxma , Michel Mandjes

Suppose we observe a geometrically ergodic semi-Markov process and have a parametric model for the transition distribution of the embedded Markov chain, for the conditional distribution of the inter-arrival times, or for both. The first two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-21 Ursula U. Müller , Anton Schick , Wolfgang Wefelmeyer

We derive the strong consistency of the least squares estimator for the drift coefficient of a fractional stochastic differential system. The drift coeffcient is one-sided dissipative Lipschitz and the driving noise is additive and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-06 Yaozhong Hu , David Nualart , Hongjuan Zhou

Existing results for the estimation of the L\'evy measure are mostly limited to the onedimensional setting. We apply the spectral method to multidimensional L\'evy processes in order to construct a nonparametric estimator for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-24 Maximilian F. Steffen

We derive an equation to compute directly the expected occupation time of the centered Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This allows us to identify the parameters of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for available occupation times via a standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2011-05-30 Wolfgang Bock , Thomas Götz , Martin Grothaus , Uditha Prabhath Liyanage

We investigate the upper tail probabilities of the all-time maximum of a stable L\'evy process with a power negative drift. The asymptotic behaviour is shown to be exponential in the spectrally negative case and polynomial otherwise, with…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-05 Christophe Profeta , Thomas Simon