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We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem and introduce a novel point-process-based prediction algorithm. Spatio-temporal prediction is extensively studied in Machine Learning literature due to its critical real-life applications such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-17 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman S. Kozat

We model the spatial dynamics of a forest stand by using a special class of spatio-temporal point processes, the sequential spatial point process, where the spatial dimension is parameterized and the time component is atomic. The sequential…

We use the abstract method of (local) martingale problems in order to give criteria for convergence of stochastic processes. Extending previous notions, the formulation we use is neither restricted to Markov processes (or semimartingales),…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-27 David Criens , Peter Pfaffelhuber , Thorsten Schmidt

Key challenges in the analysis of highly multivariate large-scale spatial stochastic processes, where both the number of components (p) and spatial locations (n) can be large, include achieving maximal sparsity in the joint precision…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Xiaoqing Chen , Peter Diggle , James V. Zidek , Gavin Shaddick

Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) prevalent for modeling stochastic population dynamics in ecology, biology, epidemiology, and many other fields. The transient or finite-time behavior of these systems…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-24 Achal Awasthi , Jason Xu

We develop a class of exponential-family point processes based on a latent social space to model the coevolution of social structure and behavior over time. Temporal dynamics are modeled as a discrete Markov process specified through…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2016-10-04 Joshua D. EmBree , Mark S. Handcock

The fundamental functional summary statistics used for studying spatial point patterns are developed for marked homogeneous and inhomogeneous point processes on the surface of a sphere. These are extended to point processes on the surface…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-03 Scott Ward , Edward A. K. Cohen , Niall M. Adams

This paper investigates the modeling of an important class of degradation data, which are collected from a spatial domain over time; for example, the surface quality degradation. Like many existing time-dependent stochastic degradation…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-29 Xiao Liu , Kyongmin Yeo , Jayant Kalagnanam

This paper introduces a new theoretical framework for analyzing lead-lag relationships between point processes, with a special focus on applications to high-frequency financial data. In particular, we are interested in lead-lag…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Takaaki Shiotani , Takaki Hayashi , Yuta Koike

The emergence of distinct local mark behaviours is becoming increasingly common in the applications of spatial marked point processes. This dynamic highlights the limitations of existing global mark correlation functions in accurately…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Matthias Eckardt , Mehdi Moradi

Time homogeneous polynomial processes are Markov processes whose moments can be calculated easily through matrix exponentials. In this work, we develop a notion of time inhomogeneous polynomial processes where the coeffiecients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 María Fernanda del Carmen Agoitia Hurtado , Thorsten Schmidt

This paper reviews developments in statistics for spatial point processes obtained within roughly the last decade. These developments include new classes of spatial point process models such as determinantal point processes, models…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-06 Jesper Møller , Rasmus Waagepetersen

We provide a novel approach to model space-time random fields where the temporal argument is decomposed into two parts. The former captures the linear argument, which is related, for instance, to the annual evolution of the field. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-18 Alfredo Alegría , Emilio Porcu

We investigate a model for planning under uncertainty with temporallyextended actions, where multiple actions can be taken concurrently at each decision epoch. Our model is based on the options framework, and combines it with factored state…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Khashayar Rohanimanesh , Sridhar Mahadevan

A generator of spatio-temporal pseudo-random Gaussian fields that satisfy the "proportionality of scales" property (Tsyroulnikov, 2001) is presented. The generator is based on a third-order in time stochastic differential equation with a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-05-15 Michael Tsyrulnikov , Dmitry Gayfulin

Random point patterns are ubiquitous in nature, and statistical models such as point processes, i.e., algorithms that generate stochastic collections of points, are commonly used to simulate and interpret them. We propose an application of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-03-04 Soran Jahangiri , Juan Miguel Arrazola , Nicolás Quesada , Nathan Killoran

The Batch Markov Modulated Poisson Process (BMMPP) is a subclass of the versatile Batch Markovian Arrival process (BMAP) which has been proposed for the modeling of dependent events occurring in batches (as group arrivals, failures or risk…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-29 Yoel G. Yera , Rosa E. Lillo , Pepa Ramírez-Cobo

Spatiotemporal dynamics models are fundamental for various domains, from heat propagation in materials to oceanic and atmospheric flows. However, currently available neural network-based spatiotemporal modeling approaches fall short when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Valerii Iakovlev , Harri Lähdesmäki

Positively (resp. negatively) associated point processes are a class of point processes that induce attraction (resp. inhibition) between the points. As an important example, determinantal point processes (DPPs) are negatively associated.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Arnaud Poinas , Bernard Delyon , Frédéric Lavancier

Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the state-space point process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-24 Yuxin Chang , Alex Boyd , Cao Xiao , Taha Kass-Hout , Parminder Bhatia , Padhraic Smyth , Andrew Warrington
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