Related papers: Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World
Throughout the past year, Turkey's central bank policy to decrease the nominal interest rate has caused episodes of severe fluctuations in Turkish lira exchange rates. According to these conditions, the daily return of the USD/TRY have…
We analyze a monetary system of random money transfer on the basis of double entry bookkeeping. Without boundary conditions, we do not reach a price equilibrium and violate text-book formulas of economists quantity theory (MV=PQ). To match…
We consider the consumption-based asset pricing model, derive a new modified basic pricing equation, and present its successive approximations using the Taylor series expansions of the investor's utility during the averaging time interval.…
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the…
To predict the future movements of stock markets, numerous studies concentrate on daily data and employ various machine learning (ML) models as benchmarks that often vary and lack standardization across different research works. This paper…
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…
We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time…
The problem of combining p-values is an old and fundamental one, and the classic assumption of independence is often violated or unverifiable in many applications. There are many well-known rules that can combine a set of arbitrarily…
We have presented a novel technique of detecting intermittencies in a financial time series of the foreign exchange rate data of U.S.- Euro dollar(US/EUR) using a combination of both statistical and spectral techniques. This has been…
This thesis applies entropy as a model independent measure to address three research questions concerning financial time series. In the first study we apply transfer entropy to drawdowns and drawups in foreign exchange rates, to study their…
For a general class of dynamic and stochastic structural models, we show that (i) non-linearity in economic dynamics is a necessary and sufficient condition for time-varying parameters (TVPs) in the reduced-form VARMA process followed by…
Predicting volatility in financial markets, including stocks, index ETFs, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies, remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics of these time series. In this study, I apply…
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early…
Hoeffding's Inequality provides the maximum probability that a series of n draws from a bounded random variable differ from the variable's true expectation u by more than given tolerance t. The random variable is typically the error rate of…
A time-varying cointegration model for foreign exchange rates is presented. Unlike previous studies, we allow the loading matrix in the vector error correction (VEC) model to be varying over time. Because the loading matrix in the VEC model…
We show that time-dependent fluctuations $\{\Delta x\}$ in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. $\{\Delta x\}$ is the outcome of $N$…
The main goal of this paper is to develop a methodology for estimating time varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) models with a timeinvariant long-run relationship between endogenous variables and changes in exogenous…
In this paper we study the pricing of exchange options when underlying assets have stochastic volatility and stochastic correlation. An approximation using a closed-form approximation based on a Taylor expansion of the conditional price is…
The development of artificial intelligence has made significant contributions to the financial sector. One of the main interests of investors is price predictions. Technical and fundamental analyses, as well as econometric analyses, are…
Selecting an appropriate statistical model to forecast exchange rates is still today a relevant issue for policymakers and central bankers. The so-called Meese and Rogoff puzzle assesses that exchange rate fluctuations are unpredictable. In…