We show that time-dependent fluctuations {Δx} in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. {Δx} is the outcome of N random steps from the origin and ∣Δx∣ is the square of the Euclidean distance of the final N-th step position. Sign of {Δx(t)} is set by the N-th step location in the plane. The model explains not only the exponential statistics of the probability density of {Δx} for G7 markets but also its observed asymmetry, and power-law dependent broadening with increasing time delay.
@article{arxiv.physics/0308062,
title = {Foreign exchange market fluctuations as random walk in demarcated complex plane},
author = {Johnrob Bantang and May Lim and Patricia Arielle Castro and Christopher Monterola and Caesar Saloma},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0308062},
year = {2008}
}