English

Foreign exchange market fluctuations as random walk in demarcated complex plane

Computational Physics 2008-12-10 v1 Statistical Finance

Abstract

We show that time-dependent fluctuations {Δx}\{\Delta x\} in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. {Δx}\{\Delta x\} is the outcome of NN random steps from the origin and Δx|\Delta x| is the square of the Euclidean distance of the final NN-th step position. Sign of {Δx(t)}\{\Delta x(t)\} is set by the NN-th step location in the plane. The model explains not only the exponential statistics of the probability density of {Δx}\{\Delta x\} for G7 markets but also its observed asymmetry, and power-law dependent broadening with increasing time delay.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.physics/0308062,
  title  = {Foreign exchange market fluctuations as random walk in demarcated complex plane},
  author = {Johnrob Bantang and May Lim and Patricia Arielle Castro and Christopher Monterola and Caesar Saloma},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0308062},
  year   = {2008}
}
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