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A statistical model is said to be calibrated if the resulting mean estimates perfectly match the true means of the underlying responses. Aiming for calibration is often not achievable in practice as one has to deal with finite samples of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Łukasz Delong , Selim Gatti , Mario V. Wüthrich

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been introduced for solving stochastic programs where the distribution of the random parameters is unknown and must be estimated by samples from that distribution. A key element of DRO is the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-09 Xi Chen , Qihang Lin , Guanglin Xu

It is realized that existing powerful tests of goodness-of-fit are all based on sorted uniforms and, consequently, can suffer from the confounded effect of different locations and various signal frequencies in the deviations of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 Chuanhai Liu

We consider a nonparametric goodness of fit test problem for the drift coefficient of one-dimensional small diffusions. Our test is based on discrete observation of the processes, and the diffusion coefficient is a nuisance function which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-01-29 Ilia Negri , Yoichi Nishiyama

High-frequency financial data can be collected as a sequence of curves over time; for example, as intra-day price, currently one of the topics of greatest interest in finance. The Functional Data Analysis framework provides a suitable tool…

We consider the problem of the construction of the goodness-of-fit tests for diffusion processes with small noise. The basic hypothesis is composite parametric and our goal is to obtain asymptotically distribution free tests. We propose two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-30 Yury A. Kutoyants

Probability predictions from binary regressions or machine learning methods ought to be calibrated: If an event is predicted to occur with probability $x$, it should materialize with approximately that frequency, which means that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-11 Timo Dimitriadis , Lutz Duembgen , Alexander Henzi , Marius Puke , Johanna Ziegel

Tests of goodness of fit are used in nearly every domain where statistics is applied. One powerful and flexible approach is to sample artificial data sets that are exchangeable with the real data under the null hypothesis (but not under the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Ritwik Bhaduri , Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber , Lucas Janson

Functional Data Analysis represents a field of growing interest in statistics. Despite several studies have been proposed leading to fundamental results, the problem of obtaining valid and efficient prediction sets has not been thoroughly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Matteo Fontana , Simone Vantini

Confidence bands are confidence sets for an unknown function f, containing all functions within some sup-norm distance of an estimator. In the density estimation, regression, and white noise models, we consider the problem of constructing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-19 Adam D. Bull

We study goodness-of-fit of discrete distributions in the distributed setting, where samples are divided between multiple users who can only release a limited amount of information about their samples due to various information constraints.…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Jayadev Acharya , Clément L. Canonne , Yanjun Han , Ziteng Sun , Himanshu Tyagi

The Newcomb-Benford probability distribution is becoming very popular in many areas using statistics, notably in fraud detection. In such contexts, it is important to be able to determine if a data set arises from this distribution while…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-03 G. R. Ducharme , S. Kaci , C. Vovor-Dassu

In the present paper, we develop a new goodness-of-fit test for the Birnbaum- Saunders distribution based on the probability plot. We utilize the sample correlation coefficient from the Birnbaum-Saunders probability plot as a measure of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-08-22 Chanseok Park , Min Wang

This paper develops a statistical framework for goodness-of-fit testing of volatility functions in McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations, which describe large systems of interacting particles with distribution-dependent dynamics.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-15 Akram Heidari , Mark Podolskij

We consider the goodness of fit testing problem for stochastic differential equation with small diffiusion coefficient. The basic hypothesis is always simple and it is described by the known trend coefficient. We propose several tests of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-27 Yury A. Kutoyants

The problem of making practical, useful goodness of fit tests in the Bayesian paradigm is largely open. We introduce a class of special cases (testing for uniformity: have the cards been shuffled enough; does my random generator work) and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-11 Persi Diaconis , Guanyang Wang

The degrees are a classical and relevant way to study the topology of a network. They can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit for a given random graph model. In this paper we introduce goodness-of-fit tests for two classes of models.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-30 Sarah Ouadah , Stéphane Robin , Pierre Latouche

Goodness-of-fit tests are often used in data analysis to test the agreement of a distribution to a set of data. These tests can be used to detect an unknown signal against a known background or to set limits on a proposed signal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Lolian Shtembari , Allen Caldwell

A central limit theorem for the integrated squared error of the directional-linear kernel density estimator is established. The result enables the construction and analysis of two testing procedures based on squared loss: a nonparametric…

In this paper, we revisit the classical goodness-of-fit problems for univariate distributions; we propose a new testing procedure based on a characterisation of the uniform distribution. Asymptotic theory for the simple hypothesis case is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-17 Bruno Ebner , Shawn Liebenberg , Jaco Visagie