Related papers: Exploiting Causality for Selective Belief Filterin…

Filtering is concerned with the sequential estimation of the state, and uncertainties, of a Markovian system, given noisy observations. It is particularly difficult to achieve accurate filtering in complex dynamical systems, such as those…

Particle filters for data assimilation in nonlinear problems use "particles" (replicas of the underlying system) to generate a sequence of probability density functions (pdfs) through a Bayesian process. This can be expensive because a…

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

Predictive safety filters (PSFs) leverage model predictive control to enforce constraint satisfaction during deep reinforcement learning (RL) exploration, yet their reliance on first-principles models or Gaussian processes limits…

In this paper, we investigate safety-critical control problem of discrete-time stochastic systems with incomplete information, where safety constraints must be enforced using state estimates obtained from noisy measurements. We develop an…

The issue of confidence factors in Knowledge Based Systems has become increasingly important and Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory has become increasingly popular as a basis for these factors. This paper discusses the need for an empirical…

For better classification generative models are used to initialize the model and model features before training a classifier. Typically it is needed to solve separate unsupervised and supervised learning problems. Generative restricted…

Statistical models of natural stimuli provide an important tool for researchers in the fields of machine learning and computational neuroscience. A canonical way to quantitatively assess and compare the performance of statistical models is…

This paper presents, evaluates, and discusses a new software tool to automatically build Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) from ordinary differential equations (ODEs) entered by the user. The DBNs generated from ODE models can handle both…

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian…

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide…

Many signal processing applications require estimation of time-varying sparse signals, potentially with the knowledge of an imperfect dynamics model. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for dynamic filtering of time-varying sparse…

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks…

In this work we investigate the problem of uncertainty estimation for image-guided depth completion. We extend Deep Basis Fitting (DBF) for depth completion within a Bayesian evidence framework to provide calibrated per-pixel variance. The…

Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately…

Extreme weather frequently cause widespread outages in distribution systems (DSs), demonstrating the importance of hardening strategies for resilience enhancement. However, the well-utilization of real-world outage data with associated…

Human-centered systems of systems such as social networks, Internet of Things, or healthcare systems are growingly becoming major facets of modern life. Realistic models of human behavior in such systems play a significant role in their…

Particle filtering is a Bayesian inference method and a fundamental tool in state estimation for dynamic systems, but its effectiveness is often limited by the constraints of the initial prior distribution, a phenomenon we define as the…

The effect of bias on hypothesis formation is characterized for an automated data-driven projection pursuit neural network to extract and select features for binary classification of data streams. This intelligent exploratory process…