Related papers: Exploiting Causality for Selective Belief Filterin…

Dyna-style reinforcement learning is a powerful approach for problems where not much real data is available. The main idea is to supplement real trajectories, or sequences of sampled states over time, with simulated ones sampled from a…

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

Bayesian filtering is a general framework for recursively estimating the state of a dynamical system. Classical solutions such that Kalman filter and Particle filter are introduced in this report. Gaussian processes have been introduced as…

We develop and extend existing decision-theoretic methods for troubleshooting a nonfunctioning device. Traditionally, diagnosis with Bayesian networks has focused on belief updating---determining the probabilities of various faults given…

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a…

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Few Bayesian methods for analyzing high-dimensional sparse survival data provide scalable variable selection, effect estimation and uncertainty quantification. Such methods often either sacrifice uncertainty quantification by computing…

A Deep Belief Network (DBN) requires large, multiple hidden layers with high number of hidden units to learn good features from the raw pixels of large images. This implies more training time as well as computational complexity. By…

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as…

In processing and manufacturing industries, there has been a large push to produce higher quality products and ensure maximum efficiency of processes. This requires approaches to effectively detect and resolve disturbances to ensure optimal…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs) has been recently proposed as one of the most promising direction to universal generative modelling, having ability to learn any of the data type. Their power comes from the expressiveness of neural networks…

Particle filters (PFs) are powerful sampling-based inference/learning algorithms for dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). They allow us to treat, in a principled way, any type of probability distribution, nonlinearity and non-stationarity.…

This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian…

Collaborative filtering is a useful technique for exploiting the preference patterns of a group of users to predict the utility of items for the active user. In general, the performance of collaborative filtering depends on the number of…

We consider the problem of approximate belief-state monitoring using particle filtering for the purposes of implementing a policy for a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). While particle filtering has become a widely-used…

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Bayesian model selection is premised on the assumption that the data are generated from one of the postulated models. However, in many applications, all of these models are incorrect (that is, there is misspecification). When the models are…

We developed the language of Modifiable Temporal Belief Networks (MTBNs) as a structural and temporal extension of Bayesian Belief Networks (BNs) to facilitate normative temporal and causal modeling under uncertainty. In this paper we…

Discovery of an accurate causal Bayesian network structure from observational data can be useful in many areas of science. Often the discoveries are made under uncertainty, which can be expressed as probabilities. To guide the use of such…