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We consider a new approach in the definition of two-dimensional heavy-tailed distributions. Namely, we introduce the classes of two-dimensional long-tailed, of twodimensional dominatedly varying and of two-dimensional consistently varying…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

We derive exponential bounds for tail of distribution for natural, i.e. under ordinary logarithm, normalized sums of arrays of random variables, not necessarily independent.

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Emma S. Simpson , Jonathan A. Tawn

We study the fluctuations of a stochastic Maxwell-Lorentz particle model driven by an external field to determine the extent to which fluctuation relations are related to large deviations. Focusing on the total entropy production of this…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-08-02 Giacomo Gradenigo , Alessandro Sarracino , Andrea Puglisi , Hugo Touchette

We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-10 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier

We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho , Hyeyoung Maeng

We study the large-volume asymptotics of the sum of power-weighted edge lengths $\sum_{e \in E}|e|^\alpha$ in Poisson-based spatial random networks. In the regime $\alpha > d$, we provide a set of sufficient conditions under which the upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-08 Christian Hirsch , Daniel Willhalm

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

Recently observation of random walks in complex environments like the cell and other glassy systems revealed that the spreading of particles, at its tails, follows a spatial exponential decay instead of the canonical Gaussian. We use the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-03-23 Wanli Wang , Eli Barkai , Stanislav Burov

For a $\Delta$-regular connected graph ${\sf H}$ the problem of determining the upper tail large deviation for the number of copies of ${\sf H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$, an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph on $n$ vertices with edge probability $p$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Anirban Basak , Riddhipratim Basu

Let $A$ be a transition probability kernel on a finite state space $\Delta^o =\{1, \ldots , d\}$ such that $A(x,y)>0$ for all $x,y \in \Delta^o$. Consider a reinforced chain given as a sequence $\{X_n, \; n \in \mathbb{N}_0\}$ of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-20 Amarjit Budhiraja , Adam Waterbury

We consider a family of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed margins and the type I elliptical dependence structure. This class of risks is common in finance, insurance, environmental and biostatistic applications. We obtain the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-01 Kai Wang , Chengxiu Ling

In 2017-2020 Jordanova and co-authors investigate probabilities for p-outside values and determine them in many particular cases. They show that these probabilities are closely related to the concept for heavy tails. Tukey's boxplots are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Pavlina K. Jordanova

We discuss the quenched tail estimates for the random walk in random scenery. The random walk is the symmetric nearest neighbor walk and the random scenery is assumed to be independent and identically distributed, non-negative, and has a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-27 Jean-Dominique Deuschel , Ryoki Fukushima

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Enrique F. Castillo , Cristina Solares , Patricia Gomez

The upper tail problem in a sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph asks for the probability that the number of copies of some fixed subgraph exceeds its expected value by a constant factor. We study the analogous problem for oriented subgraphs in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-06 Jiyun Park

We revisit the problem of condensation for independent, identically distributed random variables with a power-law tail, conditioned by the value of their sum. For large values of the sum, and for a large number of summands, a condensation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-03-03 Claude Godrèche

Tail risk measures are fully determined by the distribution of the underlying loss beyond its quantile at a certain level, with Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and Range Value-at-Risk being prime examples. They are induced by law-based…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-07 Tobias Fissler , Fangda Liu , Ruodu Wang , Linxiao Wei

The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 Linda Mhalla , Thomas Opitz , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

We consider the problem of efficient simulation estimation of the density function at the tails, and the probability of large deviations for a sum of independent, identically distributed, light-tailed and non-lattice random vectors. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-26 Santanu Dey , Sandeep Juneja , Ankush Agarwal