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We obtain some optimal inequalities on tail probabilities for sums of independent bounded random variables. Our main result completes an upper bound on tail probabilities due to Talagrand by giving a one-term asymptotic expansion for large…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-03 Xiequan Fan , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu

Exponential tail bounds for sums play an important role in statistics, but the example of the $t$-statistic shows that the exponential tail decay may be lost when population parameters need to be estimated from the data. However, it turns…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-22 Guenther Walther

We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-26 Clemonell Bilayi-Biakana , Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier

Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anthony C. Davison , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

We study the large-deviation properties of minimum spanning trees for two ensembles of random graphs with $N$ nodes. First, we consider complete graphs. Second, we study Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi (ER) random graphs with edge probability $p=c/N$…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-12-16 Mahdi Sarikhani , Alexander K. Hartmann

We consider the problem of finding the optimal upper bound for the tail probability of a sum of $k$ nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables with given mean $x$. For $k=1$ the answer is given by Markov's…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Tomasz Łuczak , Katarzyna Mieczkowska , Matas Šileikis

Let $(\xi_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a sequence of independent and symmetric random variables. We consider the upper bounds on tail probabilities of self-normalized deviations $$ \mathbf{P} \Big( \max_{1\leq k \leq n} \sum_{i=1}^{k} |\xi_i|\big/…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-05 Xiequan Fan

In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is capable of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-26 Lijun Zhang , Zhi-Hua Zhou

We derive in this article the exact non-asymptotical exponential and power estimates for self-normalized sums of centered independent random variables (r.v.) under natural norming. We will use also the theory of the so-called Grand Lebesgue…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-25 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

The large deviations theory for heavy-tailed processes has seen significant advances in the recent past. In particular, Rhee et al. (2019) and Bazhba et al. (2020) established large deviation asymptotics at the sample-path level for L\'evy…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-29 Zhe Su , Chang-Han Rhee

We consider the large deviations associated with the empirical mean of independent and identically distributed random variables under a subexponential moment condition. We show that non-trivial deviations are observable at a subexponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Grégoire Ferré

We consider the model of hashing with linear probing and we establish the moderate and large deviations for the total displacement in sparse tables. In this context, Weibull-like-tailed random variables appear. Deviations for sums of such…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-16 Thierry Klein , A Lagnoux , P Petit

Let $\xi_1, \xi_2, \dots$ be i.i.d. non-negative random variables whose tail varies regularly with index $-1$, let $S_n$ be the sum and $M_n$ the largest of the first $n$ values. We clarify for which sequences $x_n\to\infty$ we have…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-11 Matthias Birkner , Linglong Yuan

Let $\{X_i\}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with an intermediate regularly varying (IR) right tail $\bar{F}$. Let $(N, C_1, ..., C_N)$ be a nonnegative random vector independent of the $\{X_i\}$ with…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-18 Mariana Olvera-Cravioto

We derive the rate of decay of the tail dependence of the bivariate skew normal distribution under the equal-skewness condition {\theta}1 = {\theta}2,= {\theta}, say. The rate of convergence depends on whether {\theta} > 0 or {\theta} < 0.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-24 Thomas Fung , Eugene Seneta

High-dimensional data subject to heavy-tailed phenomena and heterogeneity are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and bring new challenges to the classical statistical methods. In this paper, we combine the asymmetric square…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Jun Zhao , Guan'ao Yan , Yi Zhang

We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-05 Bernhard Klar

It is well-known that trimmed sample means are robust against heavy tails and data contamination. This paper analyzes the performance of trimmed means and related methods in two novel contexts. The first one consists of estimating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-03 Roberto I. Oliveira , Lucas Resende

We show that the quotient of Levy processes of jump-diffusion type has a fat-tailed distribution. An application is to price theory in economics. We show that fat tails arise endogenously from modeling of price change based on an excess…

General Economics · Economics 2021-03-11 Gunduz Caginalp

We take an $L_1$-dense class of functions $\Cal F$ on a measurable space $(X,\Cal X)$ and a sequence of i.i.d. $X$-valued random variables $\xi_1,\dots,\xi_n$, and give a good estimate on the tail behaviour of $\sup\limits_{f\in\Cal…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-07 Peter Major
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