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This paper proposes two practical implementations of Four-Dimensional Variational (4D-Var) Ensemble Kalman Filter (4D-EnKF) methods for non-linear data assimilation. Our formulations' main idea is to avoid the intrinsic need for adjoint…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-05 Elias Nin-Ruiz , Jairo Diaz-Rodriguez

In this study, two classes of methods including statistical and variational data assimilation algorithms will be described. In statistical methods, the model state is updated sequentially based on the previous estimate. Variational methods,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-25 Loc Luong

In this paper, the Ensemble Kalman Filter is compared with a 4DVAR Data Assimilation System in chaotic dynamics. The Lorenz model is chosen for its simplicity in structure and its dynamical similarities with primitive equation models, such…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-13 Fabrício Pereira Harter , Cleber Souza Corrêa

Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-04-30 Angélique Ponçot , Jean-Philippe Argaud , Bertrand Bouriquet , Patrick Erhard , Serge Gratton , Olivier Thual

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) has become an increasingly important tool in data science with wide applications in many engineering and scientific fields such as geoscience1-12, biology13 and the financial…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-05-28 Xiangjun Tian , Aiguo Dai , Xiaobing Feng , Hongqin Zhang , Rui Han , Lu Zhang

Data assimilation of atmospheric observations traditionally relies on variational and Kalman filter methods. Here, an alternative neural-network data assimilation (NNDA) with variational autoencoder (VAE) is proposed. The three-dimensional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-29 Boštjan Melinc , Žiga Zaplotnik

For many years, strongly and weakly constrained approaches were the only options to deal with errors in four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar), with the aim of balancing the degrees of freedom and model constraints. Strong…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-21 Xiangjun Tian , Hongqin Zhang , Zhe Jin , Min Zhao , Yilong Wang , Yinhai Luo , Ziqing Zhang , Yanyan Tan

This paper presents a reduced-order approach for four-dimensional variational data assimilation, based on a prior EO F analysis of a model trajectory. This method implies two main advantages: a natural model-based definition of a mul…

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

Variational data assimilation in continuous time is revisited. The central techniques applied in this paper are in part adopted from the theory of optimal nonlinear control. Alternatively, the investigated approach can be considered as a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-05-18 Jochen Bröcker

Data assimilation refers to a set of algorithms designed to compute the optimal estimate of a system's state by refining the prior prediction (known as background states) using observed data. Variational assimilation methods rely on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Yi Xiao , Qilong Jia , Wei Xue , Lei Bai

Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Brian R. Hunt , Eric J. Kostelich , Istvan Szunyogh

The 4D-Var method for filtering partially observed nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems consists of finding the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator of the initial condition of the system given observations over a time window, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Daniel Paulin , Ajay Jasra , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan

We propose two new methods based/inspired by machine learning for tabular data and distance-free localization to enhance the covariance estimations in an ensemble data assimilation. The main goal is to enhance the data assimilation results…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Vinicius L. S. Silva , Gabriel S. Seabra , Alexandre A. Emerick

Data assimilation is a method that combines observations (that is, real world data) of a state of a system with model output for that system in order to improve the estimate of the state of the system and thereby the model output. The model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-05-18 Melina A. Freitag

This paper constructs an ensemble-based sampling smoother for four-dimensional data assimilation using a Hybrid/Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo approach. The smoother samples efficiently from the posterior probability density of the solution at the…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2015-05-19 Ahmed Attia , Vishwas Rao , Adrian Sandu

This work introduces a new class of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) methods grounded in data-consistent inversion (DCI) theory. The methods extend classical 4D-Var by incorporating a predictability-aware…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Rylan Spence , Troy Butler , Clint Dawson

This paper develops efficient ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) implementations based on shrinkage covariance estimation. The forecast ensemble members at each step are used to estimate the background error covariance matrix via the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-03 Elias D. Nino-Ruiz , Adrian Sandu

The performance of ensemble-based data assimilation techniques that estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations depends crucially on the prescribed uncertainty of the model dynamics and of the observations. These are…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-24 Tadeo Javier Cocucci , Manuel Pulido , Magdalena Lucini , Pierre Tandeo

Variational data assimilation estimates the dynamical system states by minimizing a cost function that fits the numerical models with the observational data. Although four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) is widely used, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yiming Yang , Xiaoyuan Cheng , Daniel Giles , Sibo Cheng , Yi He , Xiao Xue , Boli Chen , Yukun Hu
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