Related papers: Finite-length Analysis on Tail probability for Mar…
In samples from a heavy-tailed distribution a second-order approximation is often use to approximate the tail function. Based on the parameters of the approximation, an optimal sample fraction can be estimated which is then used to estimate…
Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…
The aim of this note is to construct a probability measure on the space of trajectories in a continuous time Markov chain having a finite state diagram, or more generally which admits a global bound on its degree and rates. Our approach is…
We prove that under mild positivity assumptions the entropy rate of a hidden Markov chain varies analytically as a function of the underlying Markov chain parameters. A general principle to determine the domain of analyticity is stated. An…
Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…
Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…
We study generalisations of a simple, combinatorial proof of a Chernoff bound similar to the one by Impagliazzo and Kabanets (RANDOM, 2010). In particular, we prove a randomized version of the hitting property of expander random walks and…
Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…
We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…
We study the finite-time behaviour of the popular temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm when combined with tail-averaging. We derive finite time bounds on the parameter error of the tail-averaged TD iterate under a step-size choice…
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…
We suggest an approach to obtaining general two-sided bounds on the rate of convergence in terms of special "weighted" norms related to total variation. Some important classes of continuous-time Markov chains are considered:…
A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…
A rigorous and largely self-contained account of (a) the bread-and-butter concepts and techniques in Markov chain theory and (b) the long-term behaviour of chains. As much as possible, the treatment is probabilistic instead of analytical (I…
We study the upper tail of the number of arithmetic progressions of a given length in a random subset of {1,...,n}, establishing exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the exponent. The proof also extends to…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) produces a correlated sample for estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop so that we have good estimates of the desired quantities?…
In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The quality of a tail model, which is determined by data from an unknown distribution, depends critically on the subset of data used to model the tail. Based on a suitably weighted…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods generate samples that are asymptotically distributed from a target distribution of interest as the number of iterations goes to infinity. Various theoretical results provide upper bounds on the…
We establish central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes in infinite dimension with spatially dependent and non-necessarily local branching mechanisms. This result relies on a fourth moment…
This paper addresses the advancement of probability tail bound analysis, a crucial statistical tool for assessing the probability of large deviations of random variables from their expected values. Traditional tail bounds, such as Markov's,…