Related papers: Finite-length Analysis on Tail probability for Mar…
This article concerns the tail probabilities of a light-tailed Markov-modulated L\'evy process stopped at a state-dependent Poisson rate. The tails are shown to decay exponentially at rates given by the unique positive and negative roots of…
Large deviation theory is a branch of probability theory that is devoted to a study of the "rate" at which empirical estimates of various quantities converge to their true values. The object of study in this paper is the rate at which…
We study the computation of lower and upper probabilities of hitting a target set of states for imprecise Markov chains, where transition uncertainty is modelled by a convex set of transition matrices. In the precise case, hitting…
In recent years, tensors have been applied to different applications in science and engineering fields. In order to establish theory about tail bounds of the tensors summation behavior, this work extends previous work by considering the…
Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…
We exhibit an efficient procedure for testing, based on a single long state sequence, whether an unknown Markov chain is identical to or $\varepsilon$-far from a given reference chain. We obtain nearly matching (up to logarithmic factors)…
In general, obtaining the exact steady-state distribution of queue lengths is not feasible. Therefore, we establish bounds for the tail probabilities of queue lengths. Specifically, we examine queueing systems under Heavy-Traffic (HT)…
In this paper, two new classes of lower bounds on the probability of error for $m$-ary hypothesis testing are proposed. Computation of the minimum probability of error which is attained by the maximum a-posteriori probability (MAP)…
We elaborate the idea behind Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in a mathematically coherent, yet simple and understandable way. To this end, we proof a pivotal convergence theorem for finite Markov chains and a minimal version of the…
In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…
We present a very general chaining method which allows one to control the supremum of the empirical process $\sup_{h \in H} |N^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^N h^2(X_i)-\E h^2|$ in rather general situations. We use this method to establish two main…
We consider Wald's sequential probability ratio test for deciding whether a sequence of independent and identically distributed observations comes from a specified phase-type distribution or from an exponentially tilted alternative…
There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…
We consider random-design linear prediction and related questions on the lower tail of random matrices. It is known that, under boundedness constraints, the minimax risk is of order $d/n$ in dimension $d$ with $n$ samples. Here, we study…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…
Markov chains are used to give a purely probabilistic way of understanding the conjugacy classes of the finite symplectic and orthogonal groups in odd characteristic. As a corollary of these methods one obtains a probabilistic proof of…
This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the…
We answer a question of Ahlberg and Steif (2014) by finding the tail behaviour of the crossing probability in near-critical planar percolation. Interestingly, this superexponentially small behaviour is different from the case of dynamical…
Concentration bounds for non-product, non-Haar measures are fairly recent: the first such result was obtained for contracting Markov chains by Marton in 1996 via the coupling method. The work that followed, with few exceptions, also used…
We present bounds for the finite sample error of sequential Monte Carlo samplers on static spaces. Our approach explicitly relates the performance of the algorithm to properties of the chosen sequence of distributions and mixing properties…