Related papers: Bayesian analysis of redistribution policy with a …
Iterative imputation, in which variables are imputed one at a time each given a model predicting from all the others, is a popular technique that can be convenient and flexible, as it replaces a potentially difficult multivariate modeling…
Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…
Policy-makers are often faced with the task of distributing a limited supply of resources. To support decision-making in these settings, statisticians are confronted with two challenges: estimands are defined by allocation strategies that…
We derive ensembles of decision trees through a nonparametric Bayesian model, allowing us to view random forests as samples from a posterior distribution. This insight provides large gains in interpretability, and motivates a class of…
A class of conserved models of wealth distributions are studied where wealth (or money) is assumed to be exchanged between a pair of agents in a population like the elastically colliding molecules of a gas exchanging energy. All sorts of…
We introduce a simple agent-based model which allows us to analyze three stylized facts: a fat-tailed size distribution of companies, a `tent-shaped' growth rate distribution, the scaling relation of the growth rate variance with firm size,…
Logistic regression with unknown sizes has many important applications in biological and medical sciences. All models about this problem in the literature are parametric ones. A semiparametric regression model is proposed. This model…
The broad concept of an individual's welfare is actually a cluster of related specific concepts that bear a "family resemblance" to one another. One might care about how a policy will affect people both in terms of their subjective…
The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method.…
We propose a model of multispecies populations surviving on distributed resources. System dynamics are investigated under changes in abiotic factors such as the climate, as parameterized through environmental temperature. In particular, we…
The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…
A simplified model for the growth of a population is studied in which random effects arise because reproducing individuals have a certain probability of surviving until the next breeding season and hence contributing to the next generation.…
As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…
This paper considers multiple binary hypothesis tests with adaptive allocation of sensing resources from a shared budget over a small number of stages. A Bayesian formulation is provided for the multistage allocation problem of minimizing…
Many species live in colonies that prosper for a while and then collapse. After the collapse the colony survivors disperse randomly and found new colonies that may or may not make it depending on the new environment they find. We use birth…
Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by…
Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…
Population control policies are proposed and in some places employed as a means towards curbing population growth. This paper is concerned with a disturbing side-effect of such policies, namely, the potential risk of societal fragmentation…
Statistical modeling can involve a tension between assumptions and statistical identification. The law of the observable data may not uniquely determine the value of a target parameter without invoking a key assumption, and, while…
Real-life statistical samples are often plagued by selection bias, which complicates drawing conclusions about the general population. When learning causal relationships between the variables is of interest, the sample may be assumed to be…