Related papers: Bayesian analysis of redistribution policy with a …

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…

Why are human societies unstable? Theories based on the observation of recurring patterns in historical data indicate that economic inequality, as well as social factors are key drivers. So far, models of this phenomenon are more…

A general population evolution model is considered. Any individual of the population is characterized by its score. Certain general conditions are assumed concerning the number of the individuals and their scores. Asymptotic theorems are…

We introduce the concept of budget games. Players choose a set of tasks and each task has a certain demand on every resource in the game. Each resource has a budget. If the budget is not enough to satisfy the sum of all demands, it has to…

We present a novel framework for concomitant dimension reduction and clustering. This framework is based on a novel class of Bayesian clustering factor models. These models assume a factor model structure where the vectors of common factors…

Multispecies ecosystems modelled by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations exhibit stationary population abundances, where large number of species often coexist. Understanding the precise conditions under which this is at all feasible and…

A simple mechanism for allocating indivisible resources is sequential allocation in which agents take turns to pick items. We focus on possible and necessary allocation problems, checking whether allocations of a given form occur in some or…

Randomized controlled experiments assess new policy impacts on performance metrics to inform launch decisions. Traditional approaches evaluate metrics independently despite correlations, and mixed results (e.g., positive revenue impact,…

Since its early beginnings, mankind has put to test many different society forms, and this fact raises a complex of interesting questions. The objective of this paper is to present a general population model which takes essential features…

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Stochastic multiplicative dynamics characterize many complex natural phenomena such as selection and mutation in evolving populations, and the generation and distribution of wealth within social systems. Population heterogeneity in…

Microbial ecosystems are remarkably diverse, stable, and often consist of a balanced mixture of core and peripheral species. Here we propose a conceptual model exhibiting all these emergent properties in quantitative agreement with real…

In statistical physics any given system can be either at an equilibrium or away from it. Networks are not an exception. Most network models can be classified as either equilibrium or growing. Here we show that under certain conditions there…

The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…

Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour.…

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in populations, be it alive such as animals and cells or inanimate such as goods and money. But their ability to move, crucial to cope with uncertainty and optimize…

In this paper we derive a statistical law of Life. It governs the probability of death, or complementary of survival, of the living organisms. We have deduced such a law coupling the widely used Weibull statistics, developed for describing…

We consider a multiagent system consisting of selfish and heterogeneous agents. Its behavior is modeled by multipopulation replicator dynamics, where payoff functions of populations are different from each other. In general, there exist…

We consider stochastic growth models for populations organized in colonies and subject to uniform catastrophes. To assess population viability, we analyze scenarios in which individuals adopt dispersion strategies after catastrophic events.…

This paper explores an approach to Bayesian sample size determination in clinical trials. The approach falls into the category of what is often called "proper Bayesian", in that it does not mix frequentist concepts with Bayesian ones. A…