Related papers: Bayesian analysis of redistribution policy with a …
We study a model of consensus decision making, in which a finite group of Bayesian agents has to choose between one of two courses of action. Each member of the group has a private and independent signal at his or her disposal, giving some…
We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…
Bayesian optimization has become a popular method for high-throughput computing, like the design of computer experiments or hyperparameter tuning of expensive models, where sample efficiency is mandatory. In these applications, distributed…
The analysis of population-wide datasets can provide insight on the health status of large populations so that public health officials can make data-driven decisions. The analysis of such datasets often requires highly parameterized models…
We propose a system theoretic approach to select and stabilize the endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model in which the decisions of a population of strategically interacting agents determine the transmission rate. Specifically, the…
Approximate Bayesian computation performs approximate inference for models where likelihood computations are expensive or impossible. Instead simulations from the model are performed for various parameter values and accepted if they are…
We study the distributions of money in a simple closed economic system for different types of monetary transactions. We know that for arbitrary and random sharing but locally conserving money transactions, the money distribution goes to the…
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…
We investigate the statistics of the time taken for a system driven by recruitment to reach fixation. Our model describes a series of experiments where a population is confronted with two identical options, resulting in the system fixating…
Standard neutral population genetics theory with a strictly fixed population size has important limitations. An alternative model that allows independently fluctuating population sizes and reproduces the standard neutral evolution is…
Many analyses of resource-allocation problems employ simplistic models of the population. Using the example of a resource-allocation problem of Marecek et al. [arXiv:1406.7639], we introduce rather a general behavioural model, where the…
Airline route planning takes into account the factors of commercial and customer preferences, safety, and should allow a flexibility given the tremendous uncertainty about market conditions. The mathematical model on the Bayes formula…
This paper focuses on stochastic orders and its applications : policy limits and deductibles. Further, many applications and some examples are given : comparison of two families of copulas, individual and collective risk model, reinsurance…
In this work we use an inelastic scattering process of particles to propose a model able to reproduce the salient features of the wealth distribution in an economy by including taxes to each trading process and redistributing that collected…
Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…
Dispersal of species to find a more favorable habitat is important in population dynamics. Dispersal rates evolve in response to the relative success of different dispersal strategies. In a simplified deterministic treatment (J. Dockery, V.…
Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…
We propose a game-theoretic dynamics of a population of replicating individuals. It consists of two parts: the standard replicator one and a migration between two different habitats. We consider symmetric two-player games with two…
We report on work towards flexible algorithms for solving decision problems represented as influence diagrams. An algorithm is given to construct a tree structure for each decision node in an influence diagram. Each tree represents a…
Families form the basis of society, and anthropologists have characterised various family systems. This study developed a multi-level evolutionary model of pre-industrial agricultural societies to simulate the evolution of family systems…