Related papers: Bayesian analysis of redistribution policy with a …
Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…
Studies on distribution, abundance and diversity of species revealed fascinating universalities in macroecology. Many of these patterns, like the species-area and range-abundance relationship or the year-to-year fluctuations in population…
Mounting evidences are being gathered suggesting that income and wealth distribution in various countries or societies follow a robust pattern, close to the Gibbs distribution of energy in an ideal gas in equilibrium, but also deviating…
We derive a linear recursion relation for the species abundance distribution in a statistical model of ecology and demonstrate the existence of a scaling solution.
An equation for the evolution of the distribution of wealth in a population of economic agents making binary transactions with a constant total amount of "money" has recently been proposed by one of us (RLR). This equation takes the form of…
There is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive approach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and focuses on predictive modeling, which by directly reasoning on prediction, bypasses inferential…
Risk spreading in bacterial populations is generally regarded as a strategy to maximize survival. Here, we study its role during range expansion of a genetically diverse population where growth and motility are two alternative traits. We…
Regulatory functions are essential in both socioeconomic and biological systems, from corporate managers to regulatory genes. Regulatory functions come with substantial costs and benefits, and the balance of the two is often taken for…
A multicanonical formalism is applied to the problem of statistical equilibrium in a complex system with a hierarchy of dynamical structures. At the small scales the system is in quasi-equilibrium and follows a Maxwell-Boltzmann…
The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…
We present a methodology for representing probabilistic relationships in a general-equilibrium economic model. Specifically, we define a precise mapping from a Bayesian network with binary nodes to a market price system where consumers and…
A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the…
We study optimal sample allocation between treatment and control groups under Bayesian linear models. We derive an analytic expression for the Bayes risk, which depends jointly on sample size and covariate mean balance across groups. Under…
Consider a species whose population density solves the steady diffusive logistic equation in a heterogeneous environment modeled with the help of a spatially non constant coefficient standing for a resources distribution in a given box. We…
A longstanding puzzle in urban science is whether there's an intrinsic match between human populations and the mass of their built environments. Previous findings have revealed various urban properties scaling nonlinearly with population,…
The spread of new ideas, behaviors or technologies has been extensively studied using epidemic models. Here we consider a model of diffusion where the individuals' behavior is the result of a strategic choice. We study a simple coordination…
In the framework of the Gibbs statistical theory, the question of the size of the particles forming the statistical system is investigated. This task is relevant for a wide variety of applications. The distribution for particle sizes and…
Populations are often subject to catastrophes that cause mass removal of individuals. Many stochastic growth models have been considered to explain such dynamics. Among the results reported, it has been considered whether dispersion…
A stochastic model with a continuum of economic agents often involves shocks at both macro and micro levels. This can be formalized by a continuum of random variables that are conditionally independent given the macro level shocks. Based on…
We look at the distribution of the Bayesian evidence for mock realizations of supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data. The ratios of Bayesian evidences of different models are often used to perform model selection. The significance…