Related papers: Analysis and simulation of rare events for SPDE
Semiclassical transition probabilities characterize transfer of energy between "hard" and "soft" modes in various physical systems. We establish the boundary problem for singular euclidean solutions used to calculate such probabilities.…
Biochemical reactions can happen on different time scales and also the abundance of species in these reactions can be very different from each other. Classical approaches, such as deterministic or stochastic approach, fail to account for or…
We investigate the theoretical and numerical computation of rare transitions in simple geophysical turbulent models. We consider the barotropic quasi-geostrophic and two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in regimes where bistability…
We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…
This article analyzes and compares two general techniques of rare event simulation for generating paths of Markov processes over fixed time horizons: exponential tilting and stochastic bridge. These two methods allow to accurately compute…
We use projected entangled-pair states (PEPS) to calculate the large deviations (LD) statistics of the dynamical activity of the two dimensional East model, and the two dimensional symmetric simple exclusion process (SSEP) with open…
For statistics of rare events in systems obeying a large-deviation principle, the rate function is a key quantity. When numerically estimating the rate function one is always restricted to finite system sizes. Thus, if the interest is in…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a well-established family of Monte Carlo methods for performing approximate Bayesian inference in the case where an ``implicit'' model is used for the data: when the data model can be simulated, but…
Molecular motors and other complex nonequilibrium systems are controlled by large sets of design parameters, and optimizing those parameters requires computing sensitivities -- derivatives of dynamical observables with respect to the…
We consider a standard splitting algorithm for the rare-event simulation of overflow probabilities in any subset of stations in a Jackson network at level n, starting at a fixed initial position. It was shown in DeanDup09 that a subsolution…
We propose a formalism to analyze discrete stochastic processes with finite-state-level N. By using an (N+1)-dimensional representation of su(2) Lie algebra, we re-express the master equation to a time-evolution equation for the state…
The numerical quantification of the statistics of rare events in stochastic processes is a challenging computational problem. We present a sampling method that constructs an ensemble of stochastic trajectories that are constrained to have…
This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing recurrent event data by modeling the conditional mean function of the recurrent event process as the solution to an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE). This approach not only…
Splitting probabilities quantify the likelihood of a given outcome out of competitive events. This key observable of random walk theory, historically introduced as the gambler's ruin problem, is well understood for memoryless (Markovian)…
We address the reachability problem for continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems. Our objective is to present a unified framework that characterizes the reachable set of a dynamic system in the presence of both stochastic disturbances and…
Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often…
For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…
In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…
Rare nonadiabatic reactions are a key component of many important molecular processes but are challenging to capture with direct dynamical simulations. In this paper, we combine our recently developed mapping approach to surface hopping…
We describe an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method suitable for the estimation of rare failure probabilities in complex probabilistic models. This method, the Accelerated Weight Histogram (AWH) method, has its origin in statistical…