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Related papers: Analysis and simulation of rare events for SPDE

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This article reviews the concepts and methods of variational path sampling. These methods allow computational studies of rare events in systems driven arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Based upon a statistical mechanics of trajectory space…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-02-05 Aditya N. Singh , Avishek Das , David T. Limmer

We propose and analyze a generalized splitting method to sample approximately from a distribution conditional on the occurrence of a rare event. This has important applications in a variety of contexts in operations research, engineering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-10 Zdravko I. Botev , Pierre L'Ecuyer

Many models for complex phenomena use a model for strongly-interacting elements on a small scale to generate larger-scale simulations of some aspects of experimental realizations. These models may be agent-based (as in the case of discrete…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-09-10 Jeffrey D. Picka

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit-state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-21 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

We present a theoretical framework that enables investigating rare transitions in a general model of an active particle in an external potential, with the thermal Active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Particle (AOUP) appearing as a special case. Using…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-20 Vito Seinen , Peter G. Bolhuis , Daan Crommelin , Sara Jabbari Farouji , Michel Mandjes

We develop a biased Monte Carlo algorithm to measure probabilities of rare events in cluster-cluster aggregation for arbitrary collision kernels. Given a trajectory with a fixed number of collisions, the algorithm modifies both the waiting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-05-24 Rahul Dandekar , R. Rajesh , V. Subashri , Oleg Zaboronski

We present a new method for sampling rare and large fluctuations in a non-equilibrium system governed by a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with additive forcing. To this end, we deploy the so-called instanton formalism that…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-06-26 Lasse Ebener , Georgios Margazoglou , Jan Friedrich , Luca Biferale , Rainer Grauer

This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Christian Hirsch , Sarat B. Moka , Thomas Taimre , Dirk P. Kroese

We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

This text presents one of the first successful applications of a rare events method for the study of multistability in a turbulent flow without stochastic energy injection. The trajectories of collapse of turbulence in plane Couette flow,…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-11-29 Joran Rolland

We develop a Bayesian inference method for discretely-observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Inference is challenging for most SDEs, due to the analytical intractability of the likelihood function. Nevertheless, forward…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-08 Petar Jovanovski , Andrew Golightly , Umberto Picchini

This work proposes stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) as a practical tool to replicate clustering effects of more detailed particle-based dynamics. Inspired by membrane-mediated receptor dynamics on cell surfaces, we…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-22 Nathalie Wehlitz , Mohsen Sadeghi , Alberto Montefusco , Christof Schütte , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Stefanie Winkelmann

Discrete-state, continuous-time Markov models are widely used in the modeling of biochemical reaction networks. Their complexity often precludes analytic solution, and we rely on stochastic simulation algorithms to estimate system…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-05-20 Christopher Lester , Christian A. Yates , Michael B. Giles , Ruth E. Baker

In the presence of multiscale dynamics in a reaction network, direct simulation methods become inefficient as they can only advance the system on the smallest scale. This work presents stochastic averaging techniques to accelerate…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-23 Araz Hashemi , Marcel Nunez , Petr Plechac , Dionisios G. Vlachos

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-06 Umberto Picchini

In this paper we study the kinetics of diffusion-limited, pseudo-first-order A + B -> B reactions in situations in which the particles' intrinsic reactivities vary randomly in time. That is, we suppose that the particles are bearing "gates"…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 O. Benichou , M. Moreau , G. Oshanin

The notion of entropy is shared between statistics and thermodynamics, and is fundamental to both disciplines. This makes statistical problems particularly suitable for reaction network implementations. In this paper we show how to perform…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-07 Muppirala Viswa Virinchi , Abhishek Behera , Manoj Gopalkrishnan

The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-15 Jose Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

We address the problem of simulation and parameter inference for chemical reaction networks described by the chemical Langevin equation, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) representation of the dynamics of the chemical species. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-18 Petar Jovanovski , Andrew Golightly , Umberto Picchini , Massimiliano Tamborrino

In this paper mathematical models for the evolutionary conserved Notch-Delta pathway are developed and analyzed in order to better understand how two neighboring biological cells can become different. We pursue a structure-based…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Angela Stevens , Nicola Vassena
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