Related papers: Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variable…
The modern era of scientific global-mean sea-level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more…
We produce new reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere annually averaged temperature anomalies back to 1000 AD, and explore the effects of including external climate forcings within the reconstruction and of accounting for short-memory and…
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet…
The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model which produces probabilistic reconstructions of hydroclimatic variability in Queensland Australia. The model provides a standardised approach to hydroclimate reconstruction using multiple…
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature…
Future sea-level rise poses nontrivial risks for many coastal communities. Managing these risks often relies on consensus projections like those provided by the IPCC. Yet, there is a growing awareness that the surrounding uncertainties may…
Turbulent water motions are important for the exchange of momentum, heat, nutrients, and suspended matter including sediments in the deep-sea that is generally stably stratified in density. To maintain ocean-density stratification, an…
Non-stationary time series modelling is applied to long tidal records from Esbjerg, Denmark, and coupled to climate change projections for sea-level and storminess, to produce projections of likely future sea-level maxima. The model has…
A high resolution (0.05 m) water isotopic record ($\delta^{18}\mathrm{O}$) is available from the NorthGRIP ice core. In this study we look into the water isotope diffusion history as estimated by the spectral characteristics of the…
A high-resolution wave climate projection for the northwestern Atlantic Ocean has been conducted to help assess possible regional impacts due to global climate change. The spectral wave model NOAA WAVEWATCH III is utilized with three…
Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3a, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a…
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change relies on historical instrumental data, yet observations from the early 20th century are sparse, fragmented, and uncertain. Conventional reconstructions rely on disparate statistical…
Intraplate volcanic islands are often considered as stable relief with constant vertical motion and used for relative sea-level curves reconstruction. This study shows that large landslides cause non-negligible isostatic adjustment. The…
Sea surface height observations provided by satellite altimetry since 1993 show a rising rate (3.4 mm/year) for global mean sea level. While on average, sea level has risen 10 cm over the last 30 years, there is considerable regional…