Related papers: Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variable…
This work proposes a statistically enhanced framework to address the instability and limited predictive capability of conventional Galerkin-Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (Galerkin-POD) models. The method reformulates the correction of the…
Oceanographic forecasting impacts various sectors of society by supporting environmental conservation and economic activities. Based on global circulation models, traditional forecasting methods are computationally expensive and slow,…
Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…
Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…
The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…
Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts help with managing the marine ecosystem and the aquaculture impacted by anthropogenic climate change. Numerical dynamical models are resource intensive for SST forecasts; machine learning (ML) models…
A novel dynamically varying search radius algorithm is developed that takes advantage of bathymetry information to choose satellite observations that represent coastal sea level variability better. The algorithm is successfully tested at…
We describe the basic features of SELEN, an open source Fortran 90 program for the numerical solution of the so-called "Sea Level Equation" for a spherical, layered, non-rotating Earth with Maxwell viscoelastic rheology. The Sea Level…
Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…
Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced…
Estimating background-error covariances remains a core challenge in variational data assimilation (DA). Operational systems typically approximate these covariances by transformations that separate geostrophically balanced components from…
Accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities like runoff or water level are beneficial to various areas of society. Probabilistic state-of-the-art hydrological ensemble prediction models are usually driven with…
Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, the first…
Understanding centennial scale climate variability requires data sets that are accurate, long, continuous and of broad spatial coverage. Since instrumental measurements are generally only available after 1850, temperature fields must be…
Rogue wave formation and enhancement over coastal areas have been documented over the last decade. However, this recent knowledge is in apparent contradiction with the established observation of sub-Gaussian wave statistics near shallow…
The possibility of low but nontrivial atmospheric oxygen (O2) levels during the mid-Proterozoic (between 1.8 and 0.8 billion years ago, Ga) has important ramifications for understanding Earth's O2 cycle, the evolution of complex life and…
The hydrogen isotopic (D/H) ratio reflects the global cycling and evolution of water on Earth as it fractionates through planetary processes. We model the water cycle taking seafloor hydrothermal alteration, chemical alteration of…
We present a model for variations in atmospheric temperature from time scales of one day to one million years based on a stochastic diffusion (random walk) model of the turbulent transport of heat energy vertically in a coupled…
Wind speed retrieval at sea surface is of primary importance for scientific and operational applications. Besides weather models, in-situ measurements and remote sensing technologies, especially satellite sensors, provide complementary…
Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when…