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We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Matteo Sesia , Vladimir Svetnik

This paper examines the construction of confidence sets for parameters defined as linear functionals of a function of W and X whose conditional mean given Z and X equals the conditional mean of another variable Y given Z and X. Many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Ezequiel Smucler , James M. Robins , Andrea Rotnitzky

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive point estimation, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-10-07 Angelika Rohde , Lutz Duembgen

It is a common practice to evaluate probability density function or matter spatial density function from statistical samples. Kernel density estimation is a frequently used method, but to select an optimal bandwidth of kernel estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-27 Zhen-Wei Li , Ping He

For $d \in \{1,2,3\}$, let $(B^d_t;~ t \geq 0)$ be a $d$-dimensional standard Brownian motion. We study the $d$-Brownian span set $Span(d):=\{t-s;~ B^d_s=B^d_t~\mbox{for some}~0 \leq s \leq t\}$. We prove that almost surely the random set…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Steven N. Evans , Jim Pitman , Wenpin Tang

The construction of confidence intervals for the mean of a bounded random variable is a classical problem in statistics with numerous applications in machine learning and virtually all scientific fields. In particular, obtaining the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Václav Voráček , Francesco Orabona

For estimating a lower bounded parametric function in the framework of Marchand and Strawderman (2006), we provide through a unified approach a class of Bayesian confidence intervals with credibility $1-\alpha$ and frequentist coverage…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-21 Eric Marchand , William E. Strawderman

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

This paper provides inference methods for best linear approximations to functions which are known to lie within a band. It extends the partial identification literature by allowing the upper and lower functions defining the band to be any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-27 Arun Chandrasekhar , Victor Chernozhukov , Francesca Molinari , Paul Schrimpf

Probability predictions from binary regressions or machine learning methods ought to be calibrated: If an event is predicted to occur with probability $x$, it should materialize with approximately that frequency, which means that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-11 Timo Dimitriadis , Lutz Duembgen , Alexander Henzi , Marius Puke , Johanna Ziegel

We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-27 Jing Lei , Larry Wasserman

Vertically weighted averages perform a bilateral filtering of data, in order to preserve fine details of the underlying signal, especially discontinuities such as jumps (in dimension one) or edges (in dimension two). In homogeneous regions…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-20 Ansgar Steland

We derive multiscale statistics for deconvolution in order to detect qualitative features of the unknown density. An important example covered within this framework is to test for local monotonicity on all scales simultaneously. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Johannes Schmidt-Hieber , Axel Munk , Lutz Duembgen

Consider the observation of n iid realizations of an experiment with d>1 possible outcomes, which corresponds to a single observation of a multinomial distribution M(n,p) where p is an unknown discrete distribution on {1,...,d}. In many…

Computation · Statistics 2010-06-15 Djalil Chafai , Didier Concordet

Adaptive confidence balls are constructed for individual resolution levels as well as the entire mean vector in a multiresolution framework. Finite sample lower bounds are given for the minimum expected squared radius for confidence balls…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 T. Tony Cai , Mark G. Low

We consider the nonparametric multivariate isotonic regression problem, where the regression function is assumed to be nondecreasing with respect to each predictor. Our goal is to construct a Bayesian credible interval for the function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Kang Wang , Subhashis Ghosal

Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions. Although recent conformal scores…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Vagner S. Santos , Thiago R. Ramos , Rafael Izbicki

Bayesian inference provides a principled way of estimating the parameters of a stochastic process that is observed discretely in time. The overdamped Brownian motion of a particle confined in an optical trap is generally modelled by the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-02-01 Sudipta Bera , Shuvojit Paul , Rajesh Singh , Dipanjan Ghosh , Avijit Kundu , Ayan Banerjee , R. Adhikari

This paper revisits a fundamental problem in statistical inference from a non-asymptotic theoretical viewpoint $\unicode{x2013}$ the construction of confidence sets. We establish a finite-sample bound for the estimator, characterizing its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-03 Lang Liu , Zaid Harchaoui

For estimating a lower bounded location or mean parameter for a symmetric and logconcave density, we investigate the frequentist performance of the $100(1-\alpha)%$ Bayesian HPD credible set associated with priors which are truncations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-13 Éric Marchand , William E. Strawderman , Keven Bosa , Aziz Lmoudden