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We demonstrate that two approximations to the chi^2 statistic as popularly employed by observational astronomers for fitting Poisson-distributed data can give rise to intrinsically biased model parameter estimates, even in the high counts…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Philip J. Humphrey , Wenhao Liu , David A. Buote

The problem of fitting an event distribution when the total expected number of events is not fixed, keeps appearing in experimental studies. In a chi-square fit, if overall normalization is one of the parameters parameters to be fit, the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-07-01 Byron Roe

Fitting a data set with a parametrized model can be seen geometrically as finding the global minimum of the chi^2 hypersurface, depending on a set of parameters {P_i}. This is usually done using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The main…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 L. C. Pardo , M. Rovira-Esteva , S. Busch , J. -F. Moulin , J. Ll. Tamarit

I investigate the use of Pearson's chi-square statistic, the Maximum Likelihood Ratio statistic for Poisson distributions, and the chi-square-gamma statistic (Mighell 1999, ApJ, 518, 380) for the determination of the goodness-of-fit between…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Kenneth J. Mighell

The asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimate is proved to decrease when the maximization is restricted to a subspace that contains the true parameter value. Maximum likelihood estimation allows a systematic fitting of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Marie Turčičová , Jan Mandel , Kryštof Eben

We introduce a procedure to automatically count and locate the fluorescent particles in a microscopy image. Our procedure employs an approximate likelihood estimator derived from a Poisson random field model for photon emission. Estimates…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-10 John Hughes , John Fricks , William Hancock

Data analysis in science, e.g., high-energy particle physics, is often subject to an intractable likelihood if the observables and observations span a high-dimensional input space. Typically the problem is solved by reducing the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-01-14 Stefan Wunsch , Simon Jörger , Roger Wolf , Günter Quast

Different ways of extracting parameters of interest from combined data sets of separate experiments are investigated accounting for the systematic errors. It is shown, that the frequentist approach may yield larger $\chi^2$ values when…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2018-04-17 R. Orava , O. V. Selyugin

Estimations of physical parameters using data usually involve non-uniform experimental efficiencies. In this article, a method of maximum likelihood fit is introduced using the efficiency as a weight, while the probability distribution…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-08-31 Chenxu Yu , Yanxi Zhang

The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yingying Yang , Niloufar Dousti Mousavi , Zhou Yu , Jie Yang

Gravitational microlensing events with high peak magnifications provide a much enhanced sensitivity to the detection of planets around the lens star. However, estimates of peak magnification during the early stages of an event by means of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 Michael D. Albrow

Least-squares fits are an important tool in many data analysis applications. In this paper, we review theoretical results, which are relevant for their application to data from counting experiments. Using a simple example, we illustrate the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-07 Hans Dembinski , Michael Schmelling , Roland Waldi

In this article we present our state of the art of fitting helioseismic p-mode spectra. We give a step by step recipe for fitting the spectra: statistics of the spectra both for spatially unresolved and resolved data, the use of Maximum…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-30 T. Appourchaux , L. Gizon , M. C. Rabello-Soares

The paper presents a new statistical method that enables the use of systematic errors in the maximum-likelihood regression of integer-count Poisson data to a parametric model. The method is primarily aimed at the characterization of the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-07-18 Max Bonamente , Yang Chen , Dale Zimmerman

In this paper, we describe an algorithm and associated software package (sfit_minimize) for maximizing the likelihood function of a set of parameters by minimizing $\chi^2$. The key element of this method is that the algorithm estimates the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-10 Jennifer C. Yee , Andrew P. Gould

We study the problem of parameter estimation using maximum likelihood for fast/slow systems of stochastic differential equations. Our aim is to shed light on the problem of model/data mismatch at small scales. We consider two classes of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-20 A. Papavasiliou , G. A. Pavliotis , A. M. Stuart

A common goal in an experimental physics analysis is to extract information from a reaction with multi-dimensional kinematics. The preferred method for such a task is typically the unbinned maximum likelihood method. In fits using this…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-07-02 M. Williams , C. A. Meyer

A common approach to modelling extreme values is to consider the excesses above a high threshold as realisations of a non-homogeneous Poisson process. While this method offers the advantage of modelling using threshold-invariant extreme…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-09 Paul Sharkey , Jonathan A. Tawn

Maximum likelihood fits to data can be performed using binned data and unbinned data. The likelihood fits in either case produce only the fitted quantities but not the goodness of fit. With binned data, one can obtain a measure of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Rajendran Raja

The Dirichlet distribution, also known as multivariate beta, is the most used to analyse frequencies or proportions data. Maximum likelihood is widespread for estimation of Dirichlet's parameters. However, for small sample sizes, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-04 Vincenzo Gioia , Euloge Clovis Kenne Pagui
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