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Related papers: On Posterior Concentration in Misspecified Models

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This paper concerns the approximation of probability measures on $\mathbf{R}^d$ with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Given an admissible target measure, we show the existence of the best approximation, with respect to this…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-26 Yulong Lu , Andrew M. Stuart , Hendrik Weber

Generalized likelihoods are commonly used to obtain consistent estimators with attractive computational and robustness properties. Formally, any generalized likelihood can be used to define a generalized posterior distribution, but an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-04 Jeffrey W. Miller

We consider generalized Bayesian inference on stochastic processes and dynamical systems with potentially long-range dependency. Given a sequence of observations, a class of parametrized model processes with a prior distribution, and a loss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-26 Langxuan Su , Sayan Mukherjee

This paper investigates the consistency of a posterior distribution in the single-measurement fractional Calder\'on problem with additive Gaussian noise. We consider a Bayesian framework with rescaled and Gaussian sieve priors, using a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-17 Pu-Zhao Kow , Janne Nurminen , Jesse Railo

We study the posterior distribution of the Bayesian multiple change-point regression problem when the number and the locations of the change-points are unknown. While it is relatively easy to apply the general theory to obtain the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-21 Heng Lian

The subject of this article is the introduction of a new concept of well-posedness of Bayesian inverse problems. The conventional concept of (Lipschitz, Hellinger) well-posedness in [Stuart 2010, Acta Numerica 19, pp. 451-559] is difficult…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-16 Jonas Latz

Standard Bayesian inference is known to be sensitive to model misspecification, leading to unreliable uncertainty quantification and poor predictive performance. However, finding generally applicable and computationally feasible methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-31 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-30 Elodie Vernet

Simultaneous predictive densities for independent Poisson observables are investigated. The observed data and the target variables to be predicted are independently distributed according to different Poisson distributions parametrized by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-27 Fumiyasu Komaki

In this article, we investigate the asymptotic properties of Bayesian multiple testing procedures under general dependent setup, when the sample size and the number of hypotheses both tend to infinity. Specifically, we investigate strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-14 Noirrit Kiran Chandra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This paper deals with the problem of estimating predictive densities of a matrix-variate normal distribution with known covariance matrix. Our main aim is to establish some Bayesian predictive densities related to matricial shrinkage…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-03 Hisayuki Tsukuma , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We investigate predictive densities for multivariate normal models with unknown mean vectors and known covariance matrices. Bayesian predictive densities based on shrinkage priors often have complex representations, although they are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-08 Michiko Okudo , Fumiyasu Komaki

We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-10 Zepu Zhang

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-31 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-10 Artem Sobolev , Dmitry Vetrov

In some misspecified settings, the posterior distribution in Bayesian statistics may lead to inconsistent estimates. To fix this issue, it has been suggested to replace the likelihood by a pseudo-likelihood, that is the exponential of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-12 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 David T. Frazier , Robert Kohn , Christopher Drovandi , David Gunawan

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson