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Related papers: On Posterior Concentration in Misspecified Models

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An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Guido Consonni , Laura Deldossi

Recent work has attempted to directly approximate the `function-space' or predictive posterior distribution of Bayesian models, without approximating the posterior distribution over the parameters. This is appealing in e.g. Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-19 David R. Burt , Sebastian W. Ober , Adrià Garriga-Alonso , Mark van der Wilk

Model selection is indispensable to high-dimensional sparse modeling in selecting the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate models. Most existing work assumes implicitly that the model is correctly specified or of fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-24 Pallavi Basu , Yang Feng , Jinchi Lv

We prove rates of convergence and robustness to prior misspecification within a Generalised Variational Inference (GVI) framework with bounded divergences. This addresses a significant open challenge for GVI and Federated GVI that employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-04 Terje Mildner , Paris Giampouras , Theodoros Damoulas

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-09-23 Yang Xing

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This paper shows that large nonparametric classes of conditional multivariate densities can be approximated in the Kullback--Leibler distance by different specifications of finite mixtures of normal regressions in which normal means and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-05 Andriy Norets

When and why representations learned by different deep neural networks are similar is an active research topic. We choose to address these questions from the perspective of identifiability theory, which suggests that a measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Beatrix M. G. Nielsen , Emanuele Marconato , Andrea Dittadi , Luigi Gresele

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-09 David T. Frazier , Gael M. Martin , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

In this work we establish the posterior consistency for a parametrized family of partially observed, fully dominated Markov models. As a main assumption, we suppose that the prior distribution assigns positive probability to all…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-01 Randal Douc , Jimmy Olsson , Francois Roueff

The work of Sprungk (Inverse Problems, 2020) established the local Lipschitz continuity of the misfit-to-posterior and prior-to-posterior maps with respect to the Kullback--Leibler divergence and the total variation, Hellinger, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Nada Cvetković , Han Cheng Lie

We extend several recent results providing symmetry-based guarantees for variational inference (VI) with location-scale families. VI approximates a target density $p$ by the best match $q^*$ in a family $Q$ of tractable distributions that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-11 Charles C. Margossian , Lawrence K. Saul

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Yuan Liao , Wenxin Jiang

This paper investigates sparse high-dimensional linear regression, particularly examining the properties of the posterior under conditions of random design and unknown error variance. We provide consistency results for the posterior and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-30 The Tien Mai

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Shouhao Zhou

For ill-posed inverse problems, a regularised solution can be interpreted as a mode of the posterior distribution in a Bayesian framework. This framework enriches the set the solutions, as other posterior estimates can be used as a solution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-22 Natalia Bochkina

We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

The classical condition on the existence of uniformly exponentially consistent tests for testing the true density against the complement of its arbitrary neighborhood has been widely adopted in study of asymptotics of Bayesian nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-01 Yang Xing

The consistency of posterior distributions in density estimation is at the core of Bayesian statistical theory. Classical work established sufficient conditions, typically combining KL support with complexity bounds on sieves of high prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Nicola Bariletto , Stephen G. Walker

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Sari Lasanen