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This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Zhangting Chen , Bingjie Wang , Dongya Cheng

Rough volatility models are continuous time stochastic volatility models where the volatility process is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter smaller than half, and have attracted much attention since a seminal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-20 Masaaki Fukasawa , Tetsuya Takabatake , Rebecca Westphal

When modeling multivariate phenomena, properly capturing the joint extremal behavior is often one of the many concerns. Archimax copulas appear as successful candidates in case of asymptotic dependence. In this paper, the class of Archimax…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-23 Simon Chatelain , Samuel Perreault , Johanna G. Nešlehová , Anne-Laure Fougères

In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-20 Jingjing Zou , Richard A. Davis , Gennady Samorodnitsky

In this paper, we investigate and develop a new approach to the numerical analysis and characterization of random fluctuations with heavy-tailed probability distribution function (PDF), such as turbulent heat flow and solar flare…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-22 Mohsen Ghasemi Nezhadhaghighi , Abbas Nakhlband

We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-14 Jongwook Kim , Gabjin Oh

In an efficient stock market, the returns and their time-dependent volatility are often jointly modeled by stochastic volatility models (SVMs). Over the last few decades several SVMs have been proposed to adequately capture the defining…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-21 Sujay Mukhoti , Pritam Ranjan

Heavy-tailed distributions are widely used in robust mixture modelling due to possessing thick tails. As a computationally tractable subclass of the stable distributions, sub-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable distribution received much interest in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-25 Mahdi Teimouri , Saeid Rezakhah , Adel Mohammdpour

Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 Victor S. L'vov , Anna Pomyalov , Itamar Procaccia

In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping industry, the phenomenon of sloshing can lead to the occurrence of very high pressures in the tanks of the vessel. The issue of modelling or estimating the probability of the simultaneous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-03 Antoine Dematteo , Stéphan CLEMENCON , Nicolas Vayatis , Mathilde Mougeot

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-27 Jongwook Kim , Teppei Okumura

We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-26 Nicolas Goix , Anne Sabourin , Stéphan Clémençon

Recent studies have shown that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic optimization and that the heaviness of the tails have links to the generalization error. While these studies have shed light on interesting aspects of the generalization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-14 Anant Raj , Melih Barsbey , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Lingjiong Zhu , Umut Şimşekli

We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-16 Holger Drees , Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung

We develop a novel characterization of extremal dependence between two cortical regions of the brain when its signals display extremely large amplitudes. We show that connectivity in the tails of the distribution reveals unique features of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-09 Mara Sherlin Talento , Jordan Richards , Raphael Huser , Hernando Ombao

The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-06 Taylor R. Brown

Extreme events are an important theme in various areas of science because of their typically devastating effects on society and their scientific complexities. The latter is particularly true if the underlying dynamics does not lead to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 Aicko Yves Schumann , Nicholas R. Moloney , Jörn Davidsen

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

General Economics · Economics 2024-07-09 Yujuan Qiu

We propose a transformation capable of altering the tail properties of a distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, which can be used as a layer in a normalizing flow to approximate multivariate heavy tailed distributions. We apply…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-02 Tennessee Hickling , Dennis Prangle