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Monitoring random profiles over time is used to assess whether the system of interest, generating the profiles, is operating under desired conditions at any time-point. In practice, accurate detection of a change-point within a sequence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-16 Daniel A. Timme , Andrés F. Barrientos , Eric Chicken , Debajyoti Sinha

The problem of testing the equality of the generating processes of two categorical time series is addressed in this work. To this aim, we propose three tests relying on a dissimilarity measure between categorical processes. Particular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-02 Ángel López-Oriona , José Antonio Vilar Fernández , Pierpaolo D'Urso

We construct a statistic and null test for examining the stationarity of time-series of discrete symbols: whether two data streams appear to originate from the same underlying unknown dynamical system, and if any difference is statistically…

chao-dyn · Physics 2007-05-23 Matthew B. Kennel , Alistair I. Mees

In this paper an autoregressive time series model with conditional heteroscedasticity is considered, where both conditional mean and conditional variance function are modeled nonparametrically. A test for the model assumption of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Marie Hušková , Natalie Neumeyer , Tobias Niebuhr , Leonie Selk

Given observations from a positive random variable contaminated by multiplicative measurement error, we consider a nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing task for its unknown density in a non-asymptotic framework. We propose a testing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Jan Johannes , Bianca Neubert

A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-08 Rudi Schäfer , Sonja Barkhofen , Thomas Guhr , Hans-Jürgen Stöckmann , Ulrich Kuhl

We propose a difference-based nonparametric methodology for the estimation and inference of the time-varying auto-covariance functions of a locally stationary time series when it is contaminated by a complex trend with both abrupt and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Yan Cui , Michael Levine , Zhou Zhou

Estimation of the covariance structure of spatial processes is of fundamental importance in spatial statistics. In the literature, several non-parametric and semi-parametric methods have been developed to estimate the covariance structure…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-06 Shu Yang , Zhengyuan Zhu

Standard geostatistical models assume stationarity and rely on a variogram model to account for the spatial dependence in the observed data. In some instances, this assumption that the spatial dependence structure is constant throughout the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-16 Dave Higdon , Jenise Swall , John Kern

We study change point detection and localization for univariate data in fully nonparametric settings in which, at each time point, we acquire an i.i.d. sample from an unknown distribution. We quantify the magnitude of the distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-27 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

In many life science experiments or medical studies, subjects are repeatedly observed and measurements are collected in factorial designs with multivariate data. The analysis of such multivariate data is typically based on multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-24 Lubna Amro , Frank Konietschke , Markus Pauly

We propose a new method to construct confidence intervals for quantities that are associated with a stationary time series, which avoids direct estimation of the asymptotic variances. Unlike the existing tuning-parameter-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-05-13 Xiaofeng Shao

We introduce computational methods that allow for effective estimation of a flexible, parametric non-stationary spatial model when the field size is too large to compute the multivariate normal likelihood directly. In this method, the field…

Computation · Statistics 2018-09-20 Amanda Muyskens , Joseph Guinness , Montserrat Fuentes

We provide a framework for empirical process theory of locally stationary processes using the functional dependence measure. Our results extend known results for stationary Markov chains and mixing sequences by another common possibility to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-20 Nathawut Phandoidaen , Stefan Richter

High-dimensional multivariate time series are common in many scientific and industrial applications, where the interest lies in identifying key dependence structure within the data for subsequent analysis tasks, such as forecasting. An…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Madeline A. Shelley , Chiara Boetti , Marina I. Knight , Matthew A. Nunes

We investigate the asymptotics of eigenvalues of sample covariance matrices associated with a class of non-independent Gaussian processes (separable and temporally stationary) under the Kolmogorov asymptotic regime. The limiting spectral…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-11 Tiebin Mi , Robert Caiming Qiu

We develop a general framework for establishing non-uniqueness of stationary measures for stochastically forced dynamical systems possessing an almost surely invariant submanifold. Our main abstract result provides sufficient conditions for…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Jacob Bedrossian , Alex Blumenthal , Sam Punshon-Smith

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-25 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-28 Taylor Smith , Andreas Morr , Christof Schötz , Niklas Boers

Stationary time series models built from parametric distributions are, in general, limited in scope due to the assumptions imposed on the residual distribution and autoregression relationship. We present a modeling approach for univariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-04 Maria DeYoreo , Athanasios Kottas
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