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We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…
Automated synthesis of provably correct controllers for cyber-physical systems is crucial for deployment in safety-critical scenarios. However, hybrid features and stochastic or unknown behaviours make this problem challenging. We propose a…
In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…
We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…
For modelling geophysical systems, large-scale processes are described through a set of coarse-grained dynamical equations while small-scale processes are represented via parameterizations. This work proposes a method for identifying the…
Maximum Likelihood (ML) algorithms, for the joint estimation of synchronization impairments and channel in Multiple Input Multiple Output-Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) system, are investigated in this work. A system…
State estimation of a dynamical system refers to estimating the state of a system given an imperfect model, noisy measurements and some or no information about the initial state. While Kalman filtering is optimal for estimation of linear…
This work introduces a novel approach for the joint selection of model structure and parameter learning for nonlinear dynamical systems identification. Focusing on a specific Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) family, i.e., Nonlinear…
We present an offline, iterated particle filter to facilitate statistical inference in general state space hidden Markov models. Given a model and a sequence of observations, the associated marginal likelihood L is central to…
We consider the problem of parameter estimation for a stochastic McKean-Vlasov equation, and the associated system of weakly interacting particles. We study two cases: one in which we observe multiple independent trajectories of the…
Recently-proposed particle MCMC methods provide a flexible way of performing Bayesian inference for parameters governing stochastic kinetic models defined as Markov (jump) processes (MJPs). Each iteration of the scheme requires an estimate…
In this paper, we address the identification problem for the systems characterized by linear time-invariant dynamics with bilinear observation models. More precisely, we consider a suitable parametric description of the system and formulate…
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…
\noindent Randomized nomination sampling (RNS) is a rank-based sampling technique which has been shown to be effective in several nonparametric studies involving environmental and ecological applications. In this paper, we investigate…
In this work, a versatile mathematical framework for multi-state probabilistic modeling of Resistive Switching (RS) devices is proposed for the first time. The mathematical formulation of memristor and Markov jump processes are combined…
We propose a flexible prior model for the parameters of binary Markov random fields (MRF) defined on rectangular lattices and with maximal cliques defined from a template maximal clique. The prior model allows higher-order interactions to…
In this paper, a dual estimation methodology is developed for both time-varying parameters and states of a nonlinear stochastic system based on the Particle Filtering (PF) scheme. Our developed methodology is based on a concurrent…
Joint maximum likelihood (JML) estimation is one of the earliest approaches to fitting item response theory (IRT) models. This procedure treats both the item and person parameters as unknown but fixed model parameters and estimates them…
In this paper, a purely measurement-based method is proposed to estimate the dynamic system state matrix by applying the regression theorem of the multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The proposed method employs a recursive algorithm to…
We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific…