Related papers: Posterior consistency for nonparametric hidden Mar…
We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs (or observations) in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMM), where both the uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its…
We propose a copula-based extension of the hidden Markov model (HMM) which applies when the observations recorded at each time in the sample are multivariate. The joint model produced by the copula extension allows decoding of the hidden…
We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…
Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…
Scientists and engineers are often interested in learning the number of subpopulations (or components) present in a data set. A common suggestion is to use a finite mixture model (FMM) with a prior on the number of components. Past work has…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…
We consider parameter estimation in finite hidden state space Markov models with time-dependent inhomogeneous noise, where the inhomogeneity vanishes sufficiently fast. Based on the concept of asymptotic mean stationary processes we prove…
Filter stability is a classical problem in the study of partially observed Markov processes (POMP), also known as hidden Markov models (HMM). For a POMP, an incorrectly initialized non-linear filter is said to be (asymptotically) stable if…
We propose a framework to model the distribution of sequential data coming from a set of entities connected in a graph with a known topology. The method is based on a mixture of shared hidden Markov models (HMMs), which are jointly trained…
We present a general method to derive continuity estimates for conditional probabilities of general (possibly continuous) spin models sub jected to local transformations. Such systems arise in the study of a stochastic time-evolution of…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…
In topological data analysis, we want to discern topological and geometric structure of data, and to understand whether or not certain features of data are significant as opposed to simply random noise. While progress has been made on…
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration…
Particle filters flexibly represent multiple posterior modes nonparametrically, via a collection of weighted samples, but have classically been applied to tracking problems with known dynamics and observation likelihoods. Such generative…
A hidden Markov model (HMM) solved recursively by the Viterbi algorithm can be configured to search for persistent, quasimonochromatic gravitational radiation from an isolated or accreting neutron star, whose rotational frequency is unknown…
The article presents a new perspective on the isomorphism problem for non-ergodic measure-preserving dynamical systems with discrete spectrum which is based on the connection between ergodic theory and topological dynamics constituted by…
Persistent homology is a method for probing topological properties of point clouds and functions. The method involves tracking the birth and death of topological features (2000) as one varies a tuning parameter. Features with short…
The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…
In the setting of dominated statistical models, we provide conditions yielding strong continuity of the posterior distribution with respect to the observed data. We show some applications, with special focus on exponential models.
Non-linear latent variable models have become increasingly popular in a variety of applications. However, there has been little study on theoretical properties of these models. In this article, we study rates of posterior contraction in…