Related papers: Earthquake forecasting: Statistics and Information
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous…
Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…
In our paper published earlier we discussed forecasts of earthquake focal mechanism and ways to test the forecast efficiency. Several verification methods were proposed, but they were based on ad-hoc, empirical assumptions, thus their…
The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…
A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake…
Stochastic models of point patterns in space and time are widely used to issue forecasts or assess risk, and often they affect societally relevant decisions. We adapt the concept of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules,…
The article discusses the possibilities of three-step early warning and short-term prediction of earthquakes based on the classical geological model of fault formation and a model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
The ranking problem of earthquake forecasts is considered. We formulate simple statistical requirements to forecasting quality measure R and analyze some R-ranking methods on this basis, in particular, the pari-mutuel gambling method by…
We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…
Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…
Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…