Related papers: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…
We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…
We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the proportional contribution of source populations to a newly founded colony. Samples are derived from the first generation offspring in the colony, but mating may occur preferentially…
Probability estimation is one of the fundamental tasks in statistics and machine learning. However, standard methods for probability estimation on discrete objects do not handle object structure in a satisfactory manner. In this paper, we…
The Brain Drain phenomenon is particularly heterogeneous and is characterized by peculiar specifications. It influences the economic fundamentals of both the country of origin and the host one in terms of human capital accumulation. Here,…
Analyzing demographic data collected across multiple populations, time periods, and age groups is challenging due to the interplay of high dimensionality, demographic heterogeneity among groups, and stochastic variability within smaller…
The description of complex human mobility patterns is at the core of many important applications ranging from urbanism and transportation to epidemics containment. Data about collective human movements, once scarce, has become widely…
Marine invasive species spread through global shipping and generate substantial ecological and economic impacts. Traditional risk assessments require detailed records of ballast water and traffic patterns, which are often incomplete,…
Many applications in medical statistics as well as in other fields can be described by transitions between multiple states (e.g. from health to disease) experienced by individuals over time. In this context, multi-state models are a popular…
By the use of Perron-Frobenius theory, simple proofs are given of the Fundamental Theorem of Demography and of a theorem of Cushing and Yicang on the net reproductive rate occurring in matrix models of population dynamics. The latter result…
Under a fourth order moment condition on the branching and a second order moment condition on the immigration mechanisms, we show that an appropriately scaled projection of a supercritical and irreducible continuous state and continuous…
Detailed estimates of migration stocks and flows provides evidence for understanding population dynamics, and the impact of economic and political changes that influence migration. Using data from the 2000 decennial census and 2001-2016…
This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…
In subdivided populations, migration acts together with selection and genetic drift and determines their evolution. Building up on a recently proposed method, which hinges on the emergence of a time scale separation between local and global…
This article studies the quasi-stationary behaviour of population processes with unbounded absorption rate, including one-dimensional birth and death processes with catastrophes and multi-dimensional birth and death processes, modeling…
We propose a novel Bayesian methodology which uses random walks for rapid inference of statistical properties of undirected networks with weighted or unweighted edges. Our formalism yields high-accuracy estimates of the probability…
In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to…
The Markov evolution is studied of an infinite age-structured population of migrants arriving in and departing from a continuous habitat $X \subseteq\mathds{R}^d$ -- at random and independently of each other. Each population member is…
The influence of migration on the stochastic dynamics of subdivided populations is still an open issue in various evolutionary models. We develop here a self-consistent mean-field-like method in order to determine the effects of migration…
The accelerating shift toward low and ultra-low fertility has intensified the debate over whether countries now undergoing rapid decline are approaching stabilization or entering a more persistent low-fertility regime. Existing projection…