Related papers: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…
An emerging area of research is the study of macroscale migration patterns as a network of nodes that represent places (e.g., countries, cities, and rural areas) and edges that encode migration ties that connect those places. In this…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
We develop a probabilistic framework for global modeling of the traffic over a computer network. This model integrates existing single-link (-flow) traffic models with the routing over the network to capture the global traffic behavior. It…
Modelling migration is complicated, as people move for many reasons. Some leave their country for the first time, others return to places they once called home, or move on to new destinations. However, most models focus only on who arrives,…
User-generated family trees are invaluable for constructing population-scale family networks and studying population dynamics over many generations and far into the past. Family trees contain information on individuals such as birth and…
Whether in search of better trade opportunities or escaping wars, humans have always been on the move. For almost a century, mathematical models of human mobility have been instrumental in the quantification of commuting patterns and…
Lacking lifetime income data, most intergenerational mobility estimates are subject to lifecycle bias. Using long income series from Sweden and the US, we illustrate that standard correction methods struggle to account for one important…
We consider the problems of reaching average consensus and solving consensus-based optimization over unreliable communication networks wherein packets may be dropped accidentally during transmission. Existing work either assumes that the…
How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without…
We study two models of population with migration. We assume that we are given infinitely many islands with the same number r of resources, each individual consuming one unit of resources. On an island lives an individual whose genealogy is…
We establish global convergence of the (1+1) evolution strategy, i.e., convergence to a critical point independent of the initial state. More precisely, we show the existence of a critical limit point, using a suitable extension of the…
Migration's influence in shaping population dynamics in times of impending climate and population crises exposes its crucial role in upholding societal cohesion. As migration impacts virtually all aspects of life, it continues to require…
The correct characterization of uncertainty when predicting human motion is equally important as the accuracy of this prediction. We present a new method to correctly predict the uncertainty associated with the predicted distribution of…
We consider population dynamics on a network of patches, each of which has a the same local dynamics, with different population scales (carrying capacities). It is reasonable to assume that if the patches are coupled by very fast migration…
We present a new method, "kairosis", for aggregating probability forecasts made over a time period of a single outcome determined at the end of that period. Informed by work on Bayesian change-point detection, we begin by constructing for…
We give a comprehensive rate equation description for the irreversible growth of aggregates by migration from small to large aggregates. For a homogeneous rate K(i;j) at which monomers migrate from aggregates of size i to those of size j,…
Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…
Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income…
Finding a good compromise between the exploitation of known resources and the exploration of unknown, but potentially more profitable choices, is a general problem, which arises in many different scientific disciplines. We propose a…
Recently, there have been considerable efforts to use online data to investigate international migration. These efforts show that Web data are valuable for estimating migration rates and are relatively easy to obtain. However, existing…