Related papers: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…
We prove global convergence of classical projection algorithms for feasibility problems involving union convex sets, which refer to sets expressible as the union of a finite number of closed convex sets. We present a unified strategy for…
The gravity model (GM) analogous to Newton's law of universal gravitation has successfully described the flow between different spatial regions, such as human migration, traffic flows, international economic trades, etc. This simple but…
Migration plays a crucial role in urban growth. Over time, individuals opting to relocate led to vast metropolises like London and Paris during the Industrial Revolution, Shanghai and Karachi during the last decades and thousands of smaller…
Populations exhibiting partial migration consist of two groups of individuals: Those that mi- grate between habitats, and those that remain fixed in a single habitat. We propose several discrete-time population models to investigate the…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
We consider a stationary continuous model of random size population with non-neutral mutations using a continuous state branching process with non-homogeneous immigration. We assume the type (or mutation) of the immigrants is random given…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
Reducing the global burden of stillbirths is important to improving child and maternal health. Of interest is understanding patterns in the timing of stillbirths -- that is, whether they occur in the intra- or antepartum period -- because…
Historically, matrix projection models (MPMs) have been employed to study population dynamics with regard to size, age or structure. To work with continuous traits, in the past decade, integral projection models (IPMs) have been proposed.…
Understanding the population structure and patterns of gene flow within species is of fundamental importance to the study of evolution. In the fields of population and evolutionary genetics, measures of genetic differentiation are commonly…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
In this article, a new mathematical model of human population growth as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of applications is proposed. The research of this system was carried out a…
We test a recently proposed model of commuting networks on 80 case studies from different regions of the world (Europe and United-States) and with geographic units of different sizes (municipality, county, region). The model takes as input…
Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing…
Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…
Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…
We analyze mathematical models of the global human population growth and compare them to actual dynamics of the world population and of the world surplus product. We consider a possibility that the so-called world's demographic transition…
Fine population distribution both in space and in time is crucial for epidemic management, disaster prevention,urban planning and more. Human mobility data have a great potential for mapping population distribution at a high level of…
In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…
Shape restrictions such as monotonicity on functions often arise naturally in statistical modeling. We consider a Bayesian approach to the problem of estimation of a monotone regression function and testing for monotonicity. We construct a…