Related papers: A Probabilistic Approach to Risk Mapping for Mt. E…
Due to climate change and human activity, wildfires are expected to become more frequent and extreme worldwide, causing economic and ecological disasters. The deployment of preventive measures and operational forecasts can be aided by…
In this study we aim for a deeper understanding of the power law slope, $\alpha$, of waiting time distributions. Statistically independent events with linear behavior can be characterized by binomial, Gaussian, exponential, or Poissonian…
This paper explores a large collection of about 377,000 observations, spanning more than 20 years with a frequency of 30 minutes, of the streamflow of the Paglia river, in central Italy. We analyze the long-term persistence properties of…
We study the problem of evacuation planning for natural disasters, focusing on wildfire evacuations. By creating pre-planned evacuation routes that can be updated based on real-time data, we provide an easily adjustable approach to…
Less than 10 meters deep, shallow landslides are rapidly moving and strongly dangerous slides. In the present work, the probabilistic distribution of the landslide detachment points within a valley is modelled as a spatial Poisson point…
The dynamics of Mars' obliquity are believed to be chaotic, and the historical ~3.5 Gyr (late-Hesperian onward) obliquity probability density function (PDF) is high uncertain and cannot be inferred from direct simulation alone. Obliquity is…
To create early warning capabilities for upcoming Space Weather disturbances, we have selected a dataset of 61 emerging active regions, which allows us to identify characteristic features in the evolution of acoustic power density to…
Different ways to estimate future return levels for extreme rainfall are described and applied to the Iberian Peninsula (IP), based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT). This study is made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series…
Weather and environmental factors are verified to have played significant roles in historical major cascading outages and blackouts. Therefore, in the simulation and risk assessment of cascading outages in power systems, it is necessary to…
During the three month long eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii in 2018, the pre-existing summit caldera collapsed in over 60 quasi-periodic failure events. The last 40 of these events, which generated Mw >5 very long period (VLP)…
We present measurements of the near-infrared brightness of Io's hot spots derived from 2-5 micron imaging with adaptive optics on the Keck and Gemini N telescopes. The data were obtained on 271 nights between August 2013 and the end of…
We propose a machine-learning-based (ML-based) method for efficiently predicting atomic diffusivity in crystals, in which the potential energy surface (PES) of a diffusion carrier is partially evaluated by first-principles calculations. To…
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal…
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and…
In view of a three-dimensional picture (3D) of probability to find a particle at a plane of the frequency and the time (PTF) becomes that process of absorption and process of radiation for two - level system have different direction on the…
In this paper a new long-term survival distribution is proposed. The so called long term Fr\'echet distribution allows us to fit data where a part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This model may be used, for…
In a variety of neutron lifetime experiments, in addition to $\beta-$decay, neutrons can be lost by other mechanisms including wall losses. Failure to account for these other loss mechanisms produces systematic measurement error and…
Theoretical estimates for the lifetimes of several isotopes of heavy elements with Z=102-120 are presented by calculating the quantum mechanical tunneling probability in a WKB framework and using microscopic nucleus-nucleus potential…
The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the…
Earthquakes in seismological catalogs and acoustic emission events in lab experiments can be statistically described as a linear Hawkes point process, where the spatio-temporal rate of events is a linear superposition of background…