Related papers: A Probabilistic Approach to Risk Mapping for Mt. E…
Wildfires can severely damage electricity grids leading to long periods of power interruption. Climate change will exacerbate this threat by increasing the frequency of dry climate conditions. Under these climate conditions, human-related…
The age of exascale computing has arrived and the risks associated with neutron and other atmospheric radiation are becoming more critical as the computing power increases, hence, the expected Mean Time Between Failures will be reduced…
The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the…
Lakes existed on Mars later than 3.6 billion years ago, according to sedimentary evidence for deltaic deposition. The observed fluvio-lacustrine deposits suggest that individual lake-forming climates persisted for at least several thousand…
After the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis came unprecedented to the scientific community the role of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) in tsunami-prone areas came to the fore. The Makran subduction zone (MSZ) is a hazardous…
Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations…
The spatio-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. While traditional inference methods provide only point estimates of the model parameters, we…
Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational…
We analyze the statistics of water droplet avalanches in a continuously driven system. Distributions are obtained for avalanche size, lifetime, and time between successive avalanches, along with power spectra and return maps. For low flow…
Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…
We estimate, from first-principles, the rate of inter-party avalanche involvements. The model suggests that the likelihood of inter-party involvements is quadratic in the density of parties -- twice as many parties quadruples the…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
We study several probability distributions relevant to the avalanche dynamics of elastic interfaces driven on a random substrate: The distribution of size, duration, lateral extension or area, as well as velocities. Results from the…
Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. By their very…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
Recently developed survival analysis methods improve upon existing approaches by predicting the probability of event occurrence in each of a number pre-specified (discrete) time intervals. By avoiding placing strong parametric assumptions…
Recently, a marked Poisson process (MPP) model for life catastrophe risk was proposed in [6]. We provide a justification and further support for the model by considering more general Poisson point processes in the context of extreme value…
A hanging glacier at the east face of Weisshorn (Switzerland) broke off in 2005. We were able to monitor and measure surface motion and icequake activity for 25 days up to three days prior to the break-off. The analysis of seismic waves…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…