Related papers: A cyclic time-dependent Markov process to model da…
A method is proposed to reconstruct a cyclic time-inhomogeneous Markov pro- cess from measured data. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov model is fit to the data, taken here from measurements on a wind turbine. From the time-dependent…
Using a method for stochastic data analysis, borrowed from statistical physics, we analyze synthetic data from a Markov chain model that reproduces measurements of wind speed and power production in a wind park in Portugal. We first show…
Wind farms can be regarded as complex systems that are, on the one hand, coupled to the nonlinear, stochastic characteristics of weather and, on the other hand, strongly influenced by supervisory control mechanisms. One crucial problem in…
Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting a wind farm's power generation when no or few statistical data is available. The study is based on a time-series wind speed model and on a simple dynamic model of a DFIG wind turbine including…
In this paper we consider the problem of wind energy production by using a second order semi-Markov chain in state and duration as a model of wind speed. The model used in this paper is based on our previous work where we have showed the…
Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…
The computation of the dependability measures is a crucial point in the planning and development of a wind farm. In this paper we address the issue of energy production by wind turbine by using an indexed semi-Markov chain as a model of…
Modeling wind speed is one of the key element when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. A good model can be used for forecasting, site evaluation, turbines design and many other purposes. In this work we are…
We present a new stochastic approach to describe and remodel the conversion process of a wind farm at a sampling frequency of 1Hz. When conditioning on various wind direction sectors, the dynamics of the conversion process appear as a…
In this paper, a model predictive control scheme for wind farms is presented. Our approach considers wake dynamics including their influence on local wind conditions and allows to track a given power reference. In detail, a Gaussian wake…
Weconsider Markov decision processes arising from a Markov model of an underlying natural phenomenon. Such phenomena are usually periodic (e.g. annual) in time, and so the Markov processes modelling them must be time-inhomogeneous, with…
We consider an energy storage problem involving a wind farm with a forecasted power output, a stochastic load, an energy storage device, and a connection to the larger power grid with stochastic prices. Electricity prices and wind power…
The increasing interest in renewable energy, particularly in wind, has given rise to the necessity of accurate models for the generation of good synthetic wind speed data. Markov chains are often used with this purpose but better models are…
Wind energy makes a significant contribution to global power generation. Predicting wind turbine capacity is becoming increasingly crucial for cleaner production. For this purpose, a new information priority accumulated grey model with time…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…
The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an…
Wind farms are a crucial driver toward the generation of ecological and renewable energy. Due to their rapid increase in capacity, contemporary wind farms need to adhere to strict constraints on power output to ensure stability of the…
In the context of renewable energies, wind energy appears as a sustainable alternative to address current environmental and energy challenges. This work studies the synchronization and stability of a network of wind turbines subjected to…
Many wind speed forecasting approaches have been proposed in literature. In this paper a new statistical approach for jointly predicting wind speed, wind direction and air pressure is introduced. The wind direction and the air pressure are…