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Related papers: Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

200 papers

This paper combines the power of deep-learning with the generalizability of physics-based features, to present an advanced method for seismic discrimination between earthquakes and explosions. The proposed method contains two branches: a…

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…

The focusing of a seismic image is directly linked to the accuracy of the velocity model. Therefore, a critical step in a seismic imaging workflow is to perform a focusing analysis on a seismic image to determine velocity errors. While the…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-02-09 Joseph Jennings , Robert Clapp , Mauricio Araya-Polo , Biondo Biondi

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…

Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-03 Jonas R. Brehmer , Kristof Kraus , Tilmann Gneiting , Marcus Herrmann , Warner Marzocchi

Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-09-24 Chen Hongran , Qin Siqing , Xue Lei , Yang Baicun , Zhang Ke

We present a method for comparing point forecasts in a region of interest, such as the tails or centre of a variable's range. This method cannot be hedged, in contrast to conditionally selecting events to evaluate and then using a scoring…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Robert J. Taggart

We derive formulae connecting the frequency variations in the spectrum of solar oscillations to the dynamical quantities that are expected to change over the solar activity cycle. This is done for both centroids and the asymmetric part of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 W. A. Dziembowski , P. R. Goode

The relation between seismic moment and fractured area is crucial to earthquake hazard analysis. Experimental catalogs show multiple scaling behaviors, with some controversy concerning the exponent value in the large earthquake regime.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-11 François P. Landes , E. Lippiello

In this paper, we propose a stochastic dynamic model for earthquake rupture and suggest that the Langevin equation of frictions may be used for interpreting the slip distributions of rupture processes in earthquakes. The steady-state…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-02-14 Tsung-Hsi Wu , Chien-Chih Chen

Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current/future estimates of track, intensity, and structure. Despite a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-13 Ryan Lagerquist , Galina Chirokova , Robert DeMaria , Mark DeMaria , Imme Ebert-Uphoff

Gravitational wave observatories have always been affected by tele-seismic earthquakes leading to a decrease in duty cycle and coincident observation time. In this analysis, we leverage the power of machine learning algorithms and archival…

We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of…

Deep learning techniques for processing large and complex datasets have unlocked new opportunities for fast and reliable earthquake analysis using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. This work presents a deep learning model,…

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) are the probabilistic model that combines the strengths of both neural network (NN) and stochastic processes. As a result, BNN can combat overfitting and perform well in applications where data is limited.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-13 Sabber Ahamed , Md Mesbah Uddin

We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…

In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2014-05-05 Douglas S. R. Ferreira , Andrés R. R. Papa , Ronaldo Menezes

This report presents a preliminary analysis of an LSTM neural network designed to predict the accuracy of magnitude estimates computed by Early-est during the first minutes after an earthquake occurs.

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-27 Massimo Nazaria

Seismology faces fundamental challenges in state forecasting and reconstruction (e.g., earthquake early warning and ground motion prediction) and managing the parametric variability of source locations, mechanisms, and Earth models (e.g.,…

The realistic probability distributions of a previous article are applied to the reconstruction of tracks in constant magnetic field. The complete forms and their schematic approximations produce excellent momentum estimations, drastically…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2016-06-10 Gregorio Landi , Giovanni E. Landi