Related papers: Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts
Fault zones are associated with multi-scale heterogeneities of rock properties. Large scale variations may be imaged with conventional seismic reflection methods that detect offsets in geological units, and tomographic techniques that…
We develop a new method for the statistical esitmation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes recorded in the Worldwide Harvard catalog of seismic moments converted to mW-magnitudes (1977-2004 and 1977-2006). We show that using…
It had been observed by Linkov, Petrova and Osipov (1992) that there exist periodic 4-6 hours pulses of 200 microHz seismogravitational oscillations ( SGO ) before 95 % of powerful earthquakes. We explain this by beating between an…
Traditional models of slow slip events (SSEs) often oversimplify fault geometry, yet imaging studies show that real subduction faults are segmented and complex. We investigate how fault interactions influence slip behavior using 3D…
We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…
Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…
A globally driven self-organized critical model of earthquakes with conservative dynamics has been studied. An open but moving boundary condition has been used so that the origin (epicenter) of every avalanche (earthquake) is at the center…
The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the…
Paper presents a new view of seismic risk and tectonic stress reduction in the earthquake focus
We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is…
In this paper we propose computationally efficient and robust methods for estimating the moment tensor and location of micro-seismic event(s) for large search volumes. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we propose a novel joint-complexity…
We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach…
Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point…
The paper represents the VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation as the earthquake's true precursor. It is shown that this parameter is capable of describing the fault formative process in the focal area. Besides, VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation…
It has been shown [Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011); Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude $M$ greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance $\kappa_1$ of natural…
Amongst the available technologies for earthquake research, remote sensing has been commonly used due to its unique features such as fast imaging and wide image-acquisition range. Nevertheless, early studies on pre-earthquake and…
In areas with limited station coverage, earthquake depth constraints are much less accurate than their latitude and longitude. Traditional travel-time-based location methods struggle to constrain depths due to imperfect station distribution…
Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and…
The aim of this work is to provide new insights on the dynamics associated to the resonances which arise as a consequence of the coupling of the effect due to the oblateness of the Earth and the Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP) effect for an…
Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is crucial for effective early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic damage. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of magnitude classification using only the vertical…