Related papers: Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts
In our paper published earlier we discussed forecasts of earthquake focal mechanism and ways to test the forecast efficiency. Several verification methods were proposed, but they were based on ad-hoc, empirical assumptions, thus their…
Focal mechanisms of small earthquakes are critical for characterizing faults and regional stress. P-wave polarities and S/P amplitude ratios (e.g., in HASH) are widely used to determine focal mechanisms for small earthquakes, but…
P-wave first-motion polarity plays an important role in resolving focal mechanisms of small to moderate earthquakes (M <= 4.5). High-quality focal mechanism solutions for abundant small events can greatly improve our understanding of…
Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before…
Ensuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is essential, especially for facilities that rely on base isolation to reduce earthquake impacts. For understanding the seismic response, accurate models are key to predict the…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…
We discuss various methods used to investigate the geometric complexity of earthquakes and earthquake faults, based both on a point-source representation and the study of interrelations between earthquake focal mechanisms. We briefly review…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
Geometrical complexities in natural fault zones, such as steps and gaps, pose a challenge in seismic hazard studies as they can act as obstacles to seismic ruptures. In this study, we propose a criterion, which is based on the…
We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…
Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…
Tectonic deformation crucially shapes the Earth's surface, with strain localization resulting in the formation of shear zones and faults that accommodate significant tectonic displacement. Earthquake dynamic rupture models, which provide…
The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
Analyzing the NEIC-data we have shown that the spatial deep-focus earthquake distribution in the Earth interior over the 1993-2006 is characterized by the clearly defined periodical fine discrete structure with period L=50 km, which is…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…