Related papers: Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
Machine learning is becoming increasingly important in scientific and technological progress, due to its ability to create models that describe complex data and generalize well. The wealth of publicly-available seismic data nowadays…
Most earthquake energy release arises during fault slip many kilometers below the Earth's surface. Understanding earthquakes and their hazard requires mapping the geometry and distribution of this slip. Such finite-fault maps are typically…
Simulating dynamic rupture propagation is challenging due to the uncertainties involved in the underlying physics of fault slip, stress conditions, and frictional properties of the fault. A trial and error approach is often used to…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…
Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognised to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant…
This study describes a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based technique for the prediction of intensity measurements (IMs) of ground shaking. The input data to the CNN model consists of multistation 3C broadband and accelerometric…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
Earthquakes, as natural phenomena, have continuously caused damage and loss of human life historically. Earthquake prediction is an essential aspect of any society's plans and can increase public preparedness and reduce damage to a great…
We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…
This paper extends the existing fractional Hawkes process to better model mainshock-aftershock sequences of earthquakes. The fractional Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process model with temporal decay kernel being a Mittag-Leffler…
Earthquake monitoring is necessary to promptly identify the affected areas, the severity of the events, and, finally, to estimate damages and plan the actions needed for the restoration process. The use of seismic stations to monitor the…
We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the…
The accurate and automated determination of earthquake locations is still a challenging endeavor. However, such information is critical for monitoring seismic activity and assessing potential hazards in real time. Recently, a convolutional…
Accurate earthquake location, which determines the origin time and location of seismic events using phase arrival times or waveforms, is fundamental to earthquake monitoring. While recent deep learning advances have significantly improved…
Relative relocation methods are commonly used to precisely relocate earthquake clusters consisting of similar waveforms. Repeating waveforms are often recorded at volcanoes, where, however, the crust structure is expected to contain strong…
Natural earthquake fault systems are highly non-homogeneous. The inhomogeneities occur be- cause the earth is made of a variety of materials which hold and dissipate stress differently. In this work, we study scaling in earthquake fault…
Two novel methods, one that is experimental and the other comprising a pair of theoretical types (one component that is mathematically rigorous and the other that is of frequency domain computational type), are being used in concert to…
The long-term variations in the orbit of the Earth govern the insolation on its surface and hence its climate. The use of the astronomical signal, whose imprint has been recovered in the geological records, has revolutionized the…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…