Related papers: Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processe…
In this paper, we derive an explicit upper bound for the Wasserstein distance between a functional of point processes and a Gaussian distribution. Using Stein's method in conjunction with Malliavin's calculus and the Poisson embedding…
We define a numerical method that provides a non-parametric estimation of the kernel shape in symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes. This method relies on second order statistical properties of Hawkes processes that relate the covariance…
Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…
We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters…
Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…
Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…
This paper proposes an Extended State-Dependent Hawkes Process (ExsdHawkes) to model the intricate dynamics of Limit Order Books (LOBs). Our theoretical contribution lies in relaxing traditional constraints by allowing for state…
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external…
This paper discusses a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, where the rate function is the exponential function. We call these processes loglinear Hawkes processes. In the main theorem, we give sufficient conditions for explosion…
We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…
The paper constructs a multi-variate Hawkes process model of Bitcoin block arrivals and price jumps. Hawkes processes are selfexciting point processes that can capture the self- and cross-excitation effects of block mining and Bitcoin price…
This paper is devoted to establishing the full scaling limit theorems for multivariate Hawkes processes. Under some mild conditions on the exciting kernels, we develop a new way to prove that after a suitable time-spatial scaling, the…
Rough volatility models are very appealing because of their remarkable fit of both historical and implied volatilities. However, due to the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale nature of the volatility process, there is no simple way to…
We consider a multivariate non-linear Hawkes process in a multi-class setup where particles are organised within two populations of possibly different sizes, such that one of the populations acts excitatory on the system while the other…
It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the…
Market information events are generated intermittently and disseminated at high speeds in real-time. Market participants consume this high-frequency data to build limit order books, representing the current bids and offers for a given…
Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…
In this paper, we investigate the scaling limit of heavy-tailed nearly unstable cumulative INAR($\infty$) processes. These processes exhibit a power-law tail of the form $n^{-(1+\alpha)}$ for $\alpha \in (\frac{1}{2}, 1)$, and the $\ell^1$…