Related papers: Variable Susceptibility With An Open Population: A…
In this work we propose a novel space-dependent multiscale model for the spread of infectious diseases in a two-dimensional spatial context on realistic geographical scenarios. The model couples a system of kinetic transport equations…
Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
We propose an epidemic model for the spread of vector-borne diseases. The model, which is built extending the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible model, accounts for two populations -- humans and vectors -- and for cross-contagion…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…
We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…
We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
We consider the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease through finite populations and derive an expression for the final size distribution. Our derivation allows arbitrary distributions of the number of transmissions…
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
We present an epidemiological compartment model, SAIR(S), that explicitly captures the dynamics of asymptomatic infected individuals in an epidemic spread process. We first present a group model and then discuss networked versions. We…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models of epidemics, with possibly time-varying rates, on a class of networks that are locally tree-like, which includes sparse…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
We introduce a kinetic model that couples the movement of a population of individuals with the dynamics of a pathogen in the same population. We consider that transmission occurs when a susceptible and an infectious individual are…
Epidemics expose critical tensions between protecting public health and maintaining essential urban mobility. Public transport systems face this dilemma most acutely: they enable access to jobs, education, and services, yet also facilitate…