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The expansion of residential demand response programs and increased deployment of controllable loads will require accurate appliance-level load modeling and forecasting. This paper proposes a conditional hidden semi-Markov model to describe…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-10 Yuting Ji , Elizabeth Buechler , Ram Rajagopal

Optimizing the total cost of power systems is a common tool for network operation and planning. Besides valuable information about how to run and possibly expand a power system, the optimization provides an optimal Locational Marginal Price…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-03-18 Fabian Hofmann , Markus Schlott

The marginal price of electricity traditionally depends on the dual variables associated with relevant optimization goals. Particularly, in the optimal power flow realm, prices represent the cost of supplying an additional unit of power at…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Kyri Baker

The participation of electric vehicle (EV) aggregators in real-time electricity markets offers promising revenue opportunities through price-responsive energy arbitrage. A central challenge in economic bidding lies in quantifying the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Zhen Zhu , Hongcai Zhang , Yonghua Song

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Timothée Hornek Amir Sartipi , Igor Tchappi , Gilbert Fridgen

This paper provides insight on the economic inefficiency of the classical merit-order dispatch in electricity markets with uncertain supply. For this, we consider a power system whose operation is driven by a two-stage electricity market,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-05-30 Juan M. Morales , Salvador Pineda

We present new formulations of the stochastic electricity market clearing problem based on the principles of stochastic programming. Previous analyses have established that the canonical stochastic programming model effectively captures the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-11 Sakitha Ariyarathne , Harsha Gangammanavar

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-11 Ana Radovanovic , Tommaso Nesti , Bokan Chen

Economic model predictive control has been proposed as a means for solving the unit loading and unit allocation problem in multi-chiller cooling plants. The adjective economic stems from the use of financial cost due to electricity…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-19 Manuel G. Satué , Manuel R. Arahal , Luis F. Acedo , Manuel G. Ortega

Our paper aims to model supply and demand curves of electricity day-ahead auction in a parsimonious way. Our main task is to build an appropriate algorithm to present the information about electricity prices and demands with far less…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-04 Mariia Soloviova , Tiziano Vargiolu

Frequency dynamics in power systems reflect active power imbalance in real time, thereby providing an instantaneous signal to inform electricity pricing. However, existing real-time markets operate on much slower timescales and fail to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-14 Xinwei Liu , Vladimir Dvorkin

Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-08 Jesus Lago , Fjo De Ridder , Peter Vrancx , Bart De Schutter

Electricity markets are under increasing pressure to maintain reliability amidst rising renewable penetration, demand variability, and occasional price shocks. Traditional capacity market designs often fall short in addressing this by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-16 Millend Roy , Agostino Capponi , Vladimir Pyltsov , Yinbo Hu , Vijay Modi

In response to the increasing deployment of battery storage systems for cost reduction and grid stress mitigation, this study presents the development of a new real-time Markov decision process model to efficiently schedule battery systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-17 Hussein Sharadga , Ahmad Dawahdeh , Golbon Zakeri , Abdullah Hayajneh , Geoff Pritchard

Adopting a zonal structure of electricity market requires specification of zones' borders. One of the approaches to identify zones is based on clustering of Locational Marginal Prices (LMP). The purpose of the paper is twofold: (i) we…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2013-10-21 Karol Wawrzyniak , Grzegorz Orynczak , Michal Klos , Aneta Goska , Marcin Jakubek

We conduct an extensive empirical study on short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) to address the long-standing question if the optimal model structure for EPF is univariate or multivariate. We provide evidence that despite a minor…

Applications · Statistics 2018-05-18 Florian Ziel , Rafal Weron

The study of Day-Ahead prices in the electricity market is one of the most popular problems in time series forecasting. Previous research has focused on employing increasingly complex learning algorithms to capture the sophisticated…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-29 Carlos Sebastián , Carlos E. González-Guillén , Jesús Juan

Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-02 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

The intraday (ID) electricity market has received an increasing attention in the recent EU electricity-market discussions. This is partly because the uncertainty in the underlying power system is growing and the ID market provides an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-14 Saeed Mohammadi , Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh

As energy markets begin clearing at sub-hourly rates, their interaction with load control systems becomes a potentially important consideration. A simple model for the control of thermal systems using market-based power distribution…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2008-12-02 Nicolas Ho , David P. Chassin
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