Related papers: Modeling and forecasting electricity spot prices: …
We propose an enhancement to wholesale electricity markets whereby the exposure of consumers to increasingly large and volatile consumer payments arising as a byproduct of volatile real-time net loads -- i.e., loads minus renewable outputs…
Demand response (DR) refers to change in electricity consumption pattern of customers during on-peak hours in lieu of financial gains to reduce stress on distribution systems. Existing dynamic price models have not provided adequate success…
Intra-day price spreads are of interest to electricity traders, storage and electric vehicle operators. This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast the German…
In this paper, we demonstrate that a consumer's marginal system impact is only determined by their demand profile rather than their demand level. Demand profile clustering is identical to cluster consumers according to their marginal…
Utilities use demand response to shift or reduce electricity usage of flexible loads, to better match electricity demand to power generation. A common mechanism is peak pricing (PP), where consumers pay reduced (increased) prices for…
We propose a dynamical model of price formation on a spatial market where sellers and buyers are placed on the nodes of a graph, and the distribution of the buyers depends on the positions and prices of the sellers. We find that, depending…
We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain.…
We exploit a new numerical technique for evaluating the tree order contributions to the primordial scalar and tensor power spectra for scalar potential models of inflation. Among other things we use the formalism to develop a good analytic…
This paper focuses on the problem of energy imbalance management in amicrogrid. The problem is investigated from the power market perspective. Unlike the traditional power grid, a microgrid can obtain extra energy froma renewable energy…
In this paper we propose a tractable quadratic programming formulation for calculating the equilibrium term structure of electricity prices. We rely on a theoretical model described in [21], but extend it so that it reflects actually traded…
Regulators and utilities have been exploring hourly retail electricity pricing, with several existing programs providing day-ahead hourly pricing schedules. At the same time, customers are deploying distributed energy resources and smart…
In this paper we include dependency structures for electricity price forecasting and forecasting evaluation. We work with off-peak and peak time series from the German-Austrian day-ahead price, hence we analyze bivariate data. We first…
In this paper we propose a new method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices. It is based on averaging point forecasts from different models combined with expectile regression. We show that deriving the predicted distribution…
We propose a new model for electricity pricing based on the price cap principle. The particularity of the model is that the asset price is an exponential functional of a jump L\'evy process. This model can capture both mean reversion and…
In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…
Low-order frequency response models for power systems have a decades-long history in optimization and control problems such as unit commitment, economic dispatch, and wide-area control. With a few exceptions, these models are built upon the…
We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the…
Polynomial processes have the property that expectations of polynomial functions (of degree $n$, say) of the future state of the process conditional on the current state are given by polynomials (of degree $\leq n$) of the current state.…
In the context of smart grids and load balancing, daily peak load forecasting has become a critical activity for stakeholders of the energy industry. An understanding of peak magnitude and timing is paramount for the implementation of smart…
Electricity market operators worldwide use mixed-integer linear programming to solve the allocation problem in wholesale electricity markets. Prices are typically determined based on the duals of relaxed versions of this optimization…