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Demand response provides utilities with a mechanism to share with end users the stochasticity resulting from the use of renewable sources. Pricing is accordingly used to reflect energy availability, to allocate such a limited resource to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-08 Andrea Monacchi , Wilfried Elmenreich

We study a smart grid with wind power and battery storage. Traditionally, day-ahead planning aims to balance demand and wind power, yet actual wind conditions often deviate from forecasts. Short-term flexibility in storage and generation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-08 Thom S. Badings , Arnd Hartmanns , Nils Jansen , Marnix Suilen

We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products and 2- to 24-hour blocks can significantly (up to 13%) improve accuracy at…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Arkadiusz Lipiecki , Kaja Bilinska , Nicolaos Kourentzes , Rafal Weron

Renewable sources are taking center stage in electricity generation. However, matching supply with demand in a renewable-rich system is a difficult task due to the intermittent nature of renewable resources (wind, solar, etc.). As a result,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-02 Haris Mansoor , Naveed Arshad

We propose a multivariate elastic net regression forecast model for German quarter-hourly electricity spot markets. While the literature is diverse on day-ahead prediction approaches, both the intraday continuous and intraday call-auction…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-22 Christopher Kath , Florian Ziel

Online decision-making in the presence of uncertain future information is abundant in many problem domains. In the critical problem of energy generation scheduling for microgrids, one needs to decide when to switch energy supply between a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-20 Ali Menati , Sid Chi-Kin Chau , Minghua Chen

Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting has significant practical implications for grid management, renewable energy integration, power system planning, and price volatility management. This study focuses on enhancing…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Joseph Nyangon , Ruth Akintunde

Model predictive control (MPC) is a method to formulate the optimal scheduling problem for grid flexibilities in a mathematical manner. The resulting time-constrained optimization problem can be re-solved in each optimization time step…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-08-20 Steven de Jongh , Sina Steinle , Anna Hlawatsch , Felicitas Mueller , Michael Suriyah , Thomas Leibfried

Neural networks have achieved tremendous success in a large variety of applications. However, their memory footprint and computational demand can render them impractical in application settings with limited hardware or energy resources. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Steffen Schotthöfer , Emanuele Zangrando , Jonas Kusch , Gianluca Ceruti , Francesco Tudisco

We study the problem of forecasting and optimally trading day-ahead versus real-time (DART) price spreads in U.S. wholesale electricity markets. Building on the framework of Galarneau-Vincent et al., we extend spike prediction from a single…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-20 Emma Hubert , Dimitrios Lolas , Ronnie Sircar

We consider the problem of power demand forecasting in residential micro-grids. Several approaches using ARMA models, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks that perform one-step ahead predictions have been proposed in the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-06-30 Riccardo Bonetto , Michele Rossi

Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Salih Salihoglu , Ibrahim Ahmed , Afshin Asadi

Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Alexandru-Victor Andrei , Georg Velev , Filip-Mihai Toma , Daniel Traian Pele , Stefan Lessmann

This working paper presents a comprehensive study on the development and analysis of various electricity market models, focusing on continuous, discrete, and fractional-order approaches. The continuous model captures the ongoing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Ioannis Dassios

The increase in renewable energy on the consumer side gives place to new dynamics in the energy grids. Participants in a microgrid can produce energy and trade it with their peers (peer-to-peer) with the permission of the energy provider.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Nicolas Avila , Shahad Hardan , Elnura Zhalieva , Moayad Aloqaily , Mohsen Guizani

Electricity supply must be matched with demand at all times. This helps reduce the chances of issues such as load frequency control and the chances of electricity blackouts. To gain a better understanding of the load that is likely to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-09 Alexander J. M. Kell , A. Stephen McGough , Matthew Forshaw

Although the specific structures of electricity markets are diverse around the world, they were all conceived on the premise of predictable, controllable generation with nonnegligible marginal costs. Recent changes, specifically, the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Orcun Karaca

The liberalization of electricity markets and the development of renewable energy sources has led to new challenges for decision makers. These challenges are accompanied by an increasing uncertainty about future electricity price movements.…

Applications · Statistics 2018-09-12 Florian Ziel , Rick Steinert

Energy market designs with non-merchant storage have been proposed in recent years, with the aim of achieving optimal market integration of storage. In order to handle the time-linking constraints that are introduced in such markets,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-10 Linde Frölke , Eléa Prat , Pierre Pinson , Richard M. Lusby , Jalal Kazempour

Cloud computing revolutionised the industry with its elastic, on-demand approach to computational resources, but has lead to a tremendous impact on the environment. Data centers constitute 1.1-1.5% of total electricity usage in the world.…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2014-01-22 Dražen Lučanin , Ivona Brandić