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Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-08 Lingyu Feng , Ting Gao , Wang Xiao , Jinqiao Duan

In this paper, we consider a simple stochastic epidemic model on large regular random graphs and the stochastic process that corresponds to this dynamics in the standard pair approximation. Using the fact that the nodes of a pair are…

Biological Physics · Physics 2009-11-28 Ganna Rozhnova , Ana Nunes

Environmental heterogeneity can drive genetic heterogeneity in expanding populations; mutant strains may emerge that trade overall growth rate for an improved ability to survive in patches that are hostile to the wild type. This…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-03-06 Thomas Tunstall , Tim Rogers , Wolfram Möbius

Directed spiral percolation (DSP) is a new percolation model with crossed external bias fields. Since percolation is a model of disorder, the effect of external bias fields on the properties of disordered systems can be studied numerically…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-11 Santanu Sinha , S. B. Santra

Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Dock Staal , Arjen Doelman

Many stochastic physical systems evolve smoothly over time in the sense that the distribution of states changes regularly across time steps. The transition from current state to the next state can often be modeled as the combination of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jules Berman , Tobias Blickhan , Benjamin Peherstorfer

Standard epidemic models exhibit one continuous, second order phase transition to macroscopic outbreaks. However, interventions to control outbreaks may fundamentally alter epidemic dynamics. Here we reveal how such interventions modify the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-07-20 Georg Börner , Malte Schröder , Davide Scarselli , Nazmi Burak Budanur , Björn Hof , Marc Timme

We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-09 Herve Guiol , Fabio P. Machado , Rinaldo B. Schinazi

We consider a random connection model (RCM) $\xi$ driven by a Poisson process $\eta$. We derive exponential moment bounds for an arbitrary cluster, provided that the intensity $t$ of $\eta$ is below a certain critical intensity $t_T$. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-05 Mikhail Chebunin , Günter Last

Unveiling universal non-equilibrium scaling laws has been a central theme in modern statistical physics, with recent attention increasingly directed toward non-equilibrium phases that exhibit rich dynamical phenomena. A striking example…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-15 Shuoguang Liu , Peter B. Littlewood , Ryo Hanai

Chemical, physical and ecological systems passing through a saddle-node bifurcation will, momentarily, find themselves balanced at a semi-stable steady state. If perturbed by noise, such systems will escape from the zero-steady state, with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-08 Alastair Jamieson-Lane , Eric N. Cytrynbaum

We consider the constrained-degree percolation (CDP) model on the hypercubic lattice. This is a continuous-time percolation model defined by a sequence $(U_e)_{e\in\mathcal{E}^d}$ of i.i.d. uniform random variables and a positive integer…

The existence (or not) of infinite clusters is explored for two stochastic models of intersecting line segments in $d \ge 2$ dimensions. Salient features of the phase diagram are established in each case. The models are based on site…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-15 Nicholas R. Beaton , Geoffrey R. Grimmett , Mark Holmes

The stable-regenerative multiple-stable model has been shown recently to have distinct candidate extremal index and extremal index. To understand further this rare phenomenon, two more results are established here for the double-stable…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Shuyang Bai , Rafał Kulik , Yizao Wang

The spreading of infectious diseases with and without immunization of individuals can be modeled by stochastic processes that exhibit a transition between an active phase of epidemic spreading and an absorbing phase, where the disease dies…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Stephan M. Dammer , Haye Hinrichsen

Explosive synchronization(ES), as one kind of abrupt dynamical transition in nonlinearly coupled systems, is currently a subject of great interests. Given a special frequency distribution, a mixed ES is observed in a ring of coupled phase…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-04-16 Wei Chen , Weiqing Liu , Yueheng Lan , Jinghua Xiao

Deterministic rate equations are widely used in the study of stochastic, interacting particles systems. This approach assumes that the inherent noise, associated with the discreteness of the elementary constituents, may be neglected when…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-01-26 David A. Kessler , Nadav M. Shnerb

We introduce a cluster growth process that provides a clear connection between equilibrium statistical mechanics and an explosive percolation model similar to the one recently proposed by Achlioptas et al. [Science 323, 1453 (2009)]. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 A. A. Moreira , E. A. Oliveira , S. D. S. Reis , H. J. Herrmann , J. S. Andrade

Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-10-07 Everton S. Medeiros , Iberê L. Caldas , Murilo S. Baptista , Ulrike Feudel

Stochastic simulation methods can be applied successfully to model exact spatio-temporally resolved reaction-diffusion systems. However, in many cases, these methods can quickly become extremely computationally intensive with increasing…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-04-29 Jonathan U. Harrison , Christian A. Yates
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