Related papers: When to sell a Markov chain asset?
In this paper, we explore an optimal timing strategy for the trading of price spreads exhibiting mean-reverting characteristics. A sequential optimal stopping framework is formulated to analyze the optimal timings for both entering and…
This is an expository paper, focussing on the following scenario. We have two Markov chains, $\mathcal {M}$ and $\mathcal {M}'$. By some means, we have obtained a bound on the mixing time of $\mathcal {M}'$. We wish to compare $\mathcal…
Consider the following multi-phase project management problem. Each project is divided into several phases. All projects enter the next phase at the same point chosen by the decision maker based on observations up to that point. Within each…
In this paper we consider a modification of the classical Merton portfolio optimization problem. Namely, an investor can trade in financial asset and consume his capital. He is additionally endowed with a one unit of an indivisible asset…
The finite state semi-Markov process is a generalization over the Markov chain in which the sojourn time distribution is any general distribution. In this article we provide a sufficient stochastic maximum principle for the optimal control…
We propose a framework to study the optimal liquidation strategy in a limit order book for large-tick stocks, with spread equal to one tick. All order book events (market orders, limit orders and cancellations) occur according to…
We study the optimal portfolio liquidation problem over a finite horizon in a limit order book with bid-ask spread and temporary market price impact penalizing speedy execution trades. We use a continuous-time modeling framework, but in…
We study the problem of learning the transition matrices of a set of Markov chains from a single stream of observations on each chain. We assume that the Markov chains are ergodic but otherwise unknown. The learner can sample Markov chains…
We study the optimal liquidation problem in a market model where the bid price follows a geometric pure jump process whose local characteristics are driven by an unobservable finite-state Markov chain and by the liquidation rate. This model…
This paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market within a continuous time stochastic economy. The investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless…
This paper studies the risk-adjusted optimal timing to liquidate an option at the prevailing market price. In addition to maximizing the expected discounted return from option sale, we incorporate a path-dependent risk penalty based on…
This paper studies optimal market making for large-tick assets in the presence of latency. We consider a random walk model for the asset price, and formulate the market maker's optimization problem using Markov Decision Processes (MDP). We…
This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…
Traders buy and sell financial instruments in hopes of making profit, and brokers are responsible for the transaction. There are several hypotheses and conspiracy theories arguing that in some situations, brokers want their traders to lose…
We consider a stochastic factor financial model where the asset price process and the process for the stochastic factor depend on an observable Markov chain and exhibit an affine structure. We are faced with a finite time investment horizon…
We propose a framework for studying optimal market making policies in a limit order book (LOB). The bid-ask spread of the LOB is modelled by a Markov chain with finite values, multiple of the tick size, and subordinated by the Poisson…
We propose a numerical method to approximate the value function for the optimal stopping problem of a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP). Our approach is based on quantization of the post jump location---inter-arrival time Markov…
Suppose you have one unit of stock, currently worth 1, which you must sell before time $T$. The Optional Sampling Theorem tells us that whatever stopping time we choose to sell, the expected discounted value we get when we sell will be 1.…
We study one-sided and $\alpha$-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set $P$ of stochastic matrices, and the…
We consider a continuous-time financial market with an asset whose price is modeled by a linear stochastic differential equation with drift and volatility switching driven by a uniformly ergodic jump Markov process with a countable state…