English

The value of foresight

Probability 2016-07-22 v2 Pricing of Securities

Abstract

Suppose you have one unit of stock, currently worth 1, which you must sell before time TT. The Optional Sampling Theorem tells us that whatever stopping time we choose to sell, the expected discounted value we get when we sell will be 1. Suppose however that we are able to see aa units of time into the future, and base our stopping rule on that; we should be able to do better than expected value 1. But how much better can we do? And how would we exploit the additional information? The optimal solution to this problem will never be found, but in this paper we establish remarkably close bounds on the value of the problem, and we derive a fairly simple exercise rule that manages to extract most of the value of foresight.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1601.05872,
  title  = {The value of foresight},
  author = {Philip Ernst and L. C. G. Rogers and Quan Zhou},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1601.05872},
  year   = {2016}
}

Comments

19 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-22T12:34:36.921Z