Related papers: Spot volatility estimation for high-frequency data…
Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…
This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CSI 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model,…
In this paper we investigate the impact of news to predict extreme financial returns using high frequency data. We consider several model specifications differing for the dynamic property of the underlying stochastic process as well as for…
This paper proposes to model asset price dynamics with a mixture of diffusion processes where the instantaneous volatility of the underlying diffusion process contains a random vector. The marginal probability distributions of the proposed…
This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…
The author seeks to develop a model to alter the bid-offer spread, currently quoted by market makers, that varies with the market and trading conditions. The dynamic nature of financial markets and trading, as with the rest of social…
Pricing and hedging exotic options using local stochastic volatility models drew a serious attention within the last decade, and nowadays became almost a standard approach to this problem. In this paper we show how this framework could be…
We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting…
In this short paper, we study the simulation of a large system of stochastic processes subject to a common driving noise and fast mean-reverting stochastic volatilities. This model may be used to describe the firm values of a large pool of…
We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the driving noise of volatility has fractional scaling, in the "rough" regime of Hurst parameter $H < 1/2$. This regime recently attracted a lot of attention both from the statistical and…
This paper proposes an algorithm based on a staged sliding window Transformer architecture to detect abnormal behaviors in the microstructure of the foreign exchange market, focusing on high-frequency EUR/USD trading data. The method…
We focus on estimating the integrated covariance of log-price processes in the presence of market microstructure noise. We construct an efficient unbiased estimator for the quadratic covariation of two It\^{o} processes in the case where…
Our article addresses the problem of flexibly estimating a multivariate density while also attempting to estimate its marginals correctly. We do so by proposing two new estimators that try to capture the best features of mixture of normals…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
We present a detailed analysis and implementation of a splitting strategy to identify simultaneously the local-volatility surface and the jump-size distribution from quoted European prices. The underlying model consists of a jump-diffusion…
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…
Central Banks interventions are frequent in response to exogenous events with direct implications on financial market volatility. In this paper, we introduce the Asymmetric Jump Multiplicative Error Model (AJM), which accounts for a…
In this paper, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of…
The scope of this manuscript is to review some recent developments in statistics for discretely observed semimartingales which are motivated by applications for financial markets. Our journey through this area stops to take closer looks at…
A volatility surface is an important tool for pricing and hedging derivatives. The surface shows the volatility that is implied by the market price of an option on an asset as a function of the option's strike price and maturity. Often,…