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Detecting anomalies in link streams that represent various kinds of interactions is an important research topic with crucial applications. Because of the lack of ground truth data, proposed methods are mostly evaluated through their ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Matthieu Latapy , Stephany Rajeh

In statistical classification/multiple hypothesis testing and machine learning, a model distribution estimated from the training data is usually applied to replace the unknown true distribution in the Bayes decision rule, which introduces a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Zijian Yang , Vahe Eminyan , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

Understanding how well a deep generative model captures a distribution of high-dimensional data remains an important open challenge. It is especially difficult for certain model classes, such as Generative Adversarial Networks and Diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Suman Ravuri , Mélanie Rey , Shakir Mohamed , Marc Deisenroth

Record linkage involves merging records in large, noisy databases to remove duplicate entities. It has become an important area because of its widespread occurrence in bibliometrics, public health, official statistics production, political…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-09 Rebecca C. Steorts , Matt Barnes , Willie Neiswanger

Graphical model selection is a seemingly impossible task when many pairs of variables are never jointly observed; this requires inference of conditional dependencies with no observations of corresponding marginal dependencies. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-16 Giuseppe Vinci , Gautam Dasarathy , Genevera I. Allen

We derive tight and computable bounds on the bias of statistical estimators, or more generally of quantities of interest, when evaluated on a baseline model P rather than on the typically unknown true model Q. Our proposed method combines…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-04 Konstantinos Gourgoulias , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet , Jie Wang

In a bivariate setting, we consider the problem of detecting a sparse contamination or mixture component, where the effect manifests itself as a positive dependence between the variables, which are otherwise independent in the main…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-13 Ery Arias-Castro , Rong Huang , Nicolas Verzelen

We study a new ensemble of random correlation matrices related to multivariate Student (or more generally elliptic) random variables. We establish the exact density of states of empirical correlation matrices that generalizes the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Giulio Biroli , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Marc Potters

We consider the problem of defining the significance of an itemset. We say that the itemset is significant if we are surprised by its frequency when compared to the frequencies of its sub-itemsets. In other words, we estimate the frequency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-30 Nikolaj Tatti

In binary classification tasks, accurate representation of probabilistic predictions is essential for various real-world applications such as predicting payment defaults or assessing medical risks. The model must then be well-calibrated to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Arthur Charpentier , Emmanuel Flachaire , Ewen Gallic , François Hu

The predictability of a time series is determined by the sensitivity to initial conditions of its data generating process. In this paper our goal is to characterize this sensitivity from a finite sample by assuming few hypotheses on the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-12-13 Quentin Giai Gianetto , Jean-Marc Le Caillec , Erwan Marrec

It is of importance to investigate the significance of a subset of covariates $W$ for the response $Y$ given covariates $Z$ in regression modeling. To this end, we propose a significance test for the partial mean independence problem based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-06 Leheng Cai , Xu Guo , Wei Zhong

We extend several recent results providing symmetry-based guarantees for variational inference (VI) with location-scale families. VI approximates a target density $p$ by the best match $q^*$ in a family $Q$ of tractable distributions that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-11 Charles C. Margossian , Lawrence K. Saul

The additive genetic effect is arguably the most important quantity inferred in animal and plant breeding analyses. The term effect indicates that it represents causal information, which is different from standard statistical concepts as…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-04-27 Bruno Dourado Valente , Gota Morota , Guilherme Jordao Magalhaes Rosa , Daniel Gianola , Kent Weigel

The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Nimrod Megiddo

There are three classical divergence measures exist in the literature on information theory and statistics. These are namely, Jeffryes-Kullback-Leiber J-divergence. Sibson-Burbea-Rao Jensen-Shannon divegernce and Taneja Arithmetic-Geometric…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-04-01 Inder Jeet Taneja

Predictions are often probabilities; e.g., a prediction could be for precipitation tomorrow, but with only a 30% chance. Given such probabilistic predictions together with the actual outcomes, "reliability diagrams" help detect and diagnose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Imanol Arrieta-Ibarra , Paman Gujral , Jonathan Tannen , Mark Tygert , Cherie Xu

We give an overview of statistical models and likelihood, together with two of its variants: penalized and hierarchical likelihood. The Kullback-Leibler divergence is referred to repeatedly, for defining the misspecification risk of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-09-01 Daniel Commenges

The book is structured into four main chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the foundational concepts of divergence measures, including the well-known Kullback-Leibler divergence and its limitations. It then presents a detailed exploration of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Shinto Eguchi

Any physical system can be viewed from the perspective that information is implicitly represented in its state. However, the quantification of this information when it comes to complex networks has remained largely elusive. In this work, we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-23 Manlio De Domenico , Jacob Biamonte
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